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Divisional Round: Chiefs vs Bills Prediction and Game Thread

The Bills and the Chiefs renew a bitter post-season rivalry in Orchard Park

Buffalo Bills v Kansas City Chiefs Photo by David Eulitt/Getty Images

The NFL Divisional Round Weekend games conclude this evening with a clash between the Buffalo Bills and the Kansas City Chiefs. The Bills are home in Orchard Park, New York, where they have gone 8-2 this season. Kickoff is scheduled for 6:30 pm EST.

The 12-6 Buffalo Bills come into this game hot, having won their last six games, with victories over four playoff teams in that stretch. Last week the Bills routed the Pittsburgh Steelers in the Wild Card Round. The Bills rank fourth in the NFL on offense and ninth on defense. Their main weakness is in the turnovers department. Quarterback Josh Allen is a turnover machine, and as a result the Bills have turned the ball over 28 times on offense this season. However, what the Bills giveth, they taketh away. The Bills have generated 30 turnovers on defense, good for 3rd in the NFL in that department. The Bills have a stellar 8-1 record this season when they win the turnover battle. If they take care of the ball today, this should be a win for the Bills. If Josh Allen reverts to turning the ball over repeatedly, the Chiefs will likely prevail.

The 12-6 Kansas City Chiefs come into this game off a 26-7 domination of the Miami Dolphins in the Wild Card Round last week. The Chiefs kind of stumbled into the playoffs this year. After opening this season with a 7-2 record, the Chiefs went just 4-4 over the last half of the season. With Travis Kelce finally starting to show his age, Patrick Mahomes struggled to find reliable targets. However, rookie wide receiver Rashee Rice eventually emerged as Mahomes’ go to guy, and the Chiefs offense started to gel. This Chiefs team is very different from recent iterations. They are carried by the league’s 2nd ranked defense, while the once explosive offense has looked pedestrian much of the year.

The Bills want this game badly. The Chiefs knocked the Bills out of the playoffs in the AFC Championship game in Kansas City in 2021, and they did it again in the Divisional Round in Kansas City in 2022. Now the Bills finally have the Chiefs in Orchard Park in the playoffs. Will that be enough to get the Bills over the hump? We’ll see. I’m taking the Bills at home in what on paper looks like the best game this weekend, but Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs sending the Bills packing in the post-season yet again would certainly not be much of a surprise.