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Using EPA improvement data from all 2023 NFL teams to gauge how much the Jets EPA could improve in 2024

What can Jets fans reasonably expect in 2024?

NFL: New York Jets at New England Patriots Brian Fluharty-USA TODAY Sports

The New York Jets offense was bad in 2023 but, to be honest, that’s kind of been the case for most Jets offenses over the past decade. What made this year potentially different was the arrival of Hall of Fame Quarterback Aaron Rodgers, who was thought to be the kind of talent who could finally pull the Jets back into relevancy (and an above average offense).

However, that dream came undone very quickly after Rodgers got hurt in Week 1. Accordingly, we never really got to see what the offense would have looked like under Rodgers. The Jets offense needs to improve by quite a bit, but how much can fans and the Jets’ decision makers really expect the offense to improve inside of a calendar year?

To try to answer that question, I’m going to check out the largest improvements that any NFL teams made this year. If we look at the high-end improvements, that might give us some kind of estimate of what a “great but still reasonable amount of improvement” might look like.

In looking at this list, I think the team that best maps onto what the Jets would be doing is the Houston Texans. I say this because Houston added a top 10 QB (which is what the Jets are hoping Rodgers will be) and improved their wide receiver group by supplementing their young very good receiver (Nico Collins) with improved secondary options (Tank Dell and Robert Woods). By all reports, this is in line with what the Jets plan to do.

Based on that, we might say a rise of .14 is reasonable. Unfortunately though, the Jets EPA per play this season was a paltry -.20, which would mean a rise of .14 would still leave them with a below average offense.

I think an argument could be made that the Jets could rise more than the Texans, since the Jets will be making substantial changes to their offensive line, whereas the Texans already had a very strong left tackle in Laremy Tunsil. However, even if we assumed that the Jets could go a bit past an improvement of .14, it’s still tough to argue that they’re capable of making the kind of jump that would be needed to place them into an “above average” offense tier.

The Jets defense remains very good, so a league average offense might be more than enough for them to succeed next season. Now we just have to hope that they can get that far.


Will the Jets have an above average offense in 2024?

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