The first three weeks of the NFL season are in the books. On to week four. Let’s take a look at some of my favorite player prop bets for the Sunday games.
All odds come courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.
Jets vs Chiefs
Travis Kelce, Under 73.5 receiving yards (-125)
I know this goes against conventional wisdom. Kelce should kill the Jets. But he turns 34 years old in five days, and maybe, just maybe, time is catching up to Kelce just a bit. Kelce has failed to go over 73 yards in seven of his last nine games, including both games he’s played this season. The Kansas City Chiefs are spreading the ball around more than ever. We’ll see, Kelce could kill the Jets, but give me the under on 73.5 receiving yards for Kelce.
Breece Hall, Over 8.5 receiving yards (-120)
Breece Hall has gotten off to a rough start to the 2023 season, especially as a receiver. That should change a bit against the Chiefs. The New York Jets will need to get the ball into the hands of their most explosive players if they are to have any hope of upsetting the Chiefs. That means Breece Hall and Garrett Wilson should get the ball a ton. By the second half the Chiefs may well be so far ahead the Jets will be forced to abandon the run and pass, pass, pass. Give me the over on 8.5 receiving yards for Hall.
Isiah Pacheco, Over 54.5 rushing yards (-115)
Isiah Pacheco has gone over 54 rushing yards in 10 of his last 12 games. Teams run against the Jets more than against any defense in the NFL. A favorable game script should get Pacheco plenty of carries. Give me the over on 54.5 rushing yards for Pacheco.
Saints vs Buccaneers
Rachaad White, Under 51.5 rushing yards (-125)
Rachaad White gets plenty of carries with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, but he doesn’t do much with them. White has gone under 50 yards rushing in seven of his last nine games. Give me the under on 51.5 rushing yards for White.
Jaguars vs. Falcons
Calvin Ridley, Under 64.5 receiving yards (+100)
After a great first game back with the Jacksonville Jaguars, Calvin Ridley has been quiet the last two games in a Jaguars passing attack that spreads the ball around and in general has been underwhelming. Now Ridley gets to go up against his old team, the Atlanta Falcons. The Falcons pass defense has been quite good this year. They’ve only given up as many as 64 receiving yards to a receiver in one game this season. Give me the under on Calvin Ridley and 64.5 receiving yards.
Colts vs. Rams
Zack Moss, Over 67.5 rushing yards (-120)
Zack Moss has had 65 or more rushing yards in each of his last six games. Now he faces a Los Angeles Rams rushing defense that has not been particularly stout. With Moss getting nearly all the rushing attempts (other than QB rushing attempts) with the Indianapolis Colts these days, give me the over on Moss and 67.5 rushing yards.
Disclaimer: I am not a professional gambler. I do this for fun, not for profits. I cannot stress enough how bad an idea it would be to place your bets based on my picks. Use your own best judgment, have fun, and whatever you do, do not put a lot of faith in the picks herein.