While the Jets’ defense was extremely strong in 2022, the offense was not, which hindered the Jets’ success.
Relatedly, the largest move within the New York Jets’ 2023 offseason was the acquisition of Quarterback Aaron Rodgers from the Green Bay Packers. The hope behind the decision to acquire Aaron Rodgers was to improve the passing offense, and, in turn, the offense.
While there are many ways to evaluate QB play, I personally like to look at third and long. It is my belief that this is where the gap between the “bad” and the “good” quarterbacks as well as the “good” and the “great” quarterbacks begins to emerge given the higher difficulty of converting these plays. As luck would have it, these numbers were recently compiled by well-regarded NFL analytics writer Warren Sharp.
3rd down conversion % on 3rd & over 5— Warren Sharp (@SharpFootball) July 2, 2023
44% - Patrick Mahomes
43% - Dak Prescott
40% - Tua Tagovailoa
38% - Jimmy Garoppolo
37% - Trevor Lawrence
35% - Jared Goff
34% - Joe Burrow
31% - Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, Derek Carr
30% - Kenny Pickett
29% - Kirk…
As shown in the tweet, Aaron Rodgers was rather lackluster on third and 5+ yards last season. Specifically, he had a success rate of only 26% which was tied with New England Patriots Quarterback Mac Jones.
For the Jets, the hope is certainly that this figure was dragged down by Rodgers’ thumb injury last season and that he can improve considerably on this 26% figure in 2023. Sans that improvement, the Jets will have to call plays to minimize the frequency with which they face 3rd and long situations in order to avoid 4th downs.