The New York Jets finished the 2022 NFL season with a 7-10 record that failed to qualify them for a playoff game. However, since the season ended the New York Jets made several additions, including the acquisition of Hall of Fame quarterback Aaron Rodgers, that have fans hoping the Jets can finally end their playoff drought.
Recently, ESPN released their Football Power Index (FPI) ratings for the 2023 season. As explained by Seth Walder of ESPN, FPI is ESPN’s “rating and projection model for NFL teams. In the preseason, the model’s predictive ratings are based substantially on win totals from Caesars Sportsbook and strength of schedule, along with factors such as past team performance and returning starters. We use team ratings to simulate the season thousands of times, creating our projections, which update every day during the season. Game predictions are also informed by factors such as travel, rest differential and changes at starting quarterback.”
Through these simulations, percentages of the amount of times events occur can be calculated, including Super Bowl wins and playoff berths. As it pertains to the Jets, the simulations were quite favorable.
Analytics-based projections by @SethWalder: #Jets are 6th in FPI, 9.5 wins, 25% chance to win division and 4% chance to win Super Bowl — first time above 1% to win Super Bowl in 9-year history of FPI. https://t.co/R5wlOHnaVp— Rich Cimini (@RichCimini) May 22, 2023
As summarized by Rich Cimini of ESPN, these projections are the Jets most favorable in over a decade, with a 4% Super Bowl victory percentage that was the 7th highest among all teams. Moreover, they recorded a 25% chance of winning the division, which was the second highest in the division behind only the Buffalo Bills. Overall, this suggests that ESPN views the Jets as true contenders this season... a welcome change after a decade of mostly futility.