Using PFF’s game simulator to create a one simulation projection of the 2023 New York Jets Season

ProFootballFocus has a simulator in the beta stage (i.e., not the final product) that inputs a team’s players and their expected PFF grades and then simulates each regular season game against their opponents. I was given the opportunity to use this as a PFF subscriber and thought it could be a fun exercise to allow it to run on the default settings and then report back the results. Specifically, the simulation provides game-by-game results (scores) as well as simulated full-season output for a handful of offensive players. With that said, this is a simulation and by no means should it be taken as gospel or even reflective of my personal expectations.

Week-by-week scores

Week 1 v. Buffalo Bills: Jets win 26-23 (Jets record is 1-0)

Week 2 @ Dallas Cowboys: Jets lose 21-23 (Jets record is 1-1)

Week 3 v. New England Patriots: Jets lose 20-35 (Jets record is 1-2)

Week 4 v. Kansas City Chiefs: Jets lose 20-36 (Jets record is 1-3)

Week 5 @ Denver Broncos: Jets win 27-16 (Jets record is 2-3)

Week 6 v. Philadelphia Eagles: Jets lose 13-14 (Jets record is 2-4)

Week 8 @ New York Giants: Jets win 27-24 (Jets record is 3-4)

Week 9 v. Los Angeles Chargers: Jets lose 20-27 (Jets record is 3-5)

Week 10 @ Las Vegas Raiders: Jets win 24-21 (Jets record is 4-5)

Week 11 @ Buffalo Bills: Jets lose 27-34 (Jets record is 4-6)

Week 12 v. Miami Dolphins: Jets lose 14-24 (Jets record is 4-7)

Week 13 v. Atlanta Falcons: Jets win 27-22 (Jets record is 5-7)

Week 14 @ Houston Texans: Jets win 27-11 (Jets record is 6-7)

Week 15 @ Miami Dolphins: Jets win 25-18 (Jets record is 7-7)

Week 16 v. Washington Commanders: Jets lose 16-20 (Jets record is 7-8)

Week 17 @ Cleveland Browns: Jets lose 13-27 (Jets record is 7-9)

Week 18 @ New England Patriots: Jets win 41-23 (Jets record is 8-9)

Offensive player output

For the sake of brevity, I’m only going to report players who made a meaningful impact within the simulation.

Quarterback

• Aaron Rodgers: 421 completions on 611 attempts (69% completion rate), 5439 yards (8.9 yards per attempt) 33 passing touchdowns, and 9 interceptions

Wide receivers

• Allen Lazard: 88 receptions, 1286 receiving yards, 11 receiving touchdowns
• Garrett Wilson: 83 receptions, 1267 receiving yards, 5 receiving touchdowns
• Mecole Hardman: 43 receptions, 626 receiving yards, 3 receiving touchdowns
• Corey Davis: 21 receptions, 230 receiving yards, 3 receiving touchdowns

Tight ends

• Tyler Conklin: 51 receptions, 670 yards, 5 receiving touchdowns
• C.J. Uzomah: 30 receptions, 349 yards, 4 receiving touchdowns

Running backs

• Breece Hall: 221 rush attempts, 869 rush yards, 5 rush touchdowns, 28 receptions, 280 receiving yards, 0 receiving touchdowns
• Zonovan Knight: 94 rush attempts, 777 rush yards, 7 rush touchdowns, 48 receptions, 411 receiving yards, 1 receiving touchdown
• Michael Carter: 39 rush attempts, 286 rush yards, 1 rush touchdown, 16 receptions, 120 receiving yards, 1 receiving touchdown

Summary

Overall, within this simulation, the Jets started off slow before reaching a .500 record in week 15. However, they closed the season losing 2 of the last 3, landing with a 8-9 final record that would likely leave them outside of the playoff hunt. What surprised me was that within this simulation the Jets offense was superb with Rodgers accumulating 5400 passing yards. While defensive stats are not included in the output, I would to assume this simulation required the Jets defense to have a meaningful regression for the Jets to achieve a sub-.500 record with an offense that would undoubtedly be a top 5 offensive unit in the NFL with this kind of statistical output. In line with this, I actually view the simulation as favorable for the Jets given its expectations for the offense and attests to the high potential for the 2023 New York Jets roster given the simulation’s glowing treatment of the offense and the Jets 2022 success on defense.