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The New York Jets met with Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers this week in the latest development in the Jets’ tumultuous offseason.
While most football fans are familiar with the name Aaron Rodgers due to his Hall of Fame resume, the version the Jets would be getting is hardly what one would call ‘prime’ Rodgers given that he is approaching 39 years old. Accordingly, we may examine his statistics from last year to provide an estimate of how he will perform. However, given the thumb injury Rodgers reportedly played through in 2022, it may be useful to examine his 2021 figures as well. Given this, I pooled his stats from playerprofiler (along with his ranks on those stats in each year) and tabled them together to allow for a side-by-side comparison.
Aaron Rodgers 2021 and 2022 stats
| | 2021 value | 2021 rank | 2022 value | 2022 rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| | 2021 value | 2021 rank | 2022 value | 2022 rank |
| Pass attempts | 531 | 12 | 542 | 10 |
| True Completions % | 73.9 | 5 | 69.6 | 21 |
| Yards per attempt | 7.7 | 6 | 6.8 | 23 |
| Passing yards | 4115 | 10 | 3695 | 11 |
| Touchdowns | 37 | 4 | 26 | 7 |
| Interceptable passes | 14 | 32 | 21 | 20 |
| QBR (out of 100) | 68.8 | 1 | 39.4 | 26 |
| Expected points added | 182.7 | 3 | 45.2 | 21 |
| Air yards per attempt | 7.7 | 20 | 8 | 14 |
| Deep ball attempts | 69 | 11 | 81 | 2 |
| Deep ball completion % | 39.1 | 16 | 34.6 | 20 |
| Pressured completion % | 39.8 | 24 | 42.9 | 15 |
| Play-action completion % | 68.4 | 6 | 63.8 | 15 |
| Red-zone completion % | 58.6 | 13 | 63 | 5 |
| Clean pocket completion % | 74.3 | 5 | 67.4 | 26 |
As shown, the 2021 version of Rodgers was as good as any quarterback in football; by comparison, the 2022 version of Rodgers was clearly less successful. This difference may be best summarized by the difference in QBR (ranked 1st in 2021 and 26th in 2022) and expected points added (~130 points higher in 2021 than 2022).
Given this large gap in the performance of Rodgers in 2021 and 2022, the ability for General Manager Joe Douglas to ascertain the degree to which Rodgers’ 2022 performance was a signal of a waning career or a nagging thumb injury will be critical to the success of the Jets in 2023. In the event Rodgers is acquired and returns to 2021 form then the Jets will likely be Super Bowl contenders and all Jets fans will be happy he was acquired. In the event Rodgers is acquired and plays similarly to 2022 then he likely would be a welcomed improvement over the play they received from quarterbacks in 2022, albeit one with a potentially high cost. In the event Rodgers is acquired and continues to regress then woe will ensue.
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