/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/72022600/usa_today_17819826.0.jpg)
NFL prospects, agents, and team personnel will descend upon Indianapolis for the NFL combine from February 28th through March 6th.
During this event, teams will conduct interviews with prospective players as part of their evaluation process but the more ‘flashy’ aspect of the combine is the athletic testing. While this aspect of player evaluation is clearly valued by NFL teams, it has also been dubbed ‘The Underwear Olympics” and criticized as an overrated part of the evaluation puzzle (given that it does not tap into how one actually played during real games) by others.
While a logical criticism, this limitation of the combine to predict NFL success appears to be overstated per evidence provided by Kent Lee Platte (@MathBomb on Twitter) and his work on Relative Athletic Scores for prospects.
Now that I've finally got the NFL rosters loaded into #RAS, I can finally reveal something I've suspected to be true for a long time, but can finally prove. pic.twitter.com/drwYrN2qqD
— Kent Lee Platte (@MathBomb) February 27, 2023
There are 1,920 players on NFL rosters currently who posted a #RAS.
— Kent Lee Platte (@MathBomb) February 27, 2023
Of those, 81.35% are rated 5.00 or above, with only 18.65% rated below average.
A whopping 45.21% are above 8.00, in that elite range for athletic ability when compared to their peers. pic.twitter.com/t3OPsFyYxN
The average #RAS for a player on an NFL roster is 7.16.
— Kent Lee Platte (@MathBomb) February 27, 2023
Teams value this stuff. It should never be the entirety of your evaluation process, but frankly if you're omitting it entirely from your evaluations you're making a massive, entirely avoidable mistake.
So if anyone ever asks "Does that stuff even matter?" in regards to athletic testing, the answer is a deafening, booming cry of "YES, OBVIOUSLY" pic.twitter.com/q29we9Zyds
— Kent Lee Platte (@MathBomb) February 27, 2023
Here's a chart. You guys like charts, right? Does a good job of illustrating the kind of numbers we're talking about.
— Kent Lee Platte (@MathBomb) February 27, 2023
If testing didn't matter, that red would be right about 50% all the way across. pic.twitter.com/zsrv1m74pL
As laid out by Kent Lee Platte, athletic testing is a huge piece of the player evaluation puzzle. Generally speaking, having below average athleticism creates a significant uphill battle towards becoming a rostered NFL player. Similarly, one of the best ways to maximize your odds of sticking on an NFL roster appears to be to be a well above average athlete even by NFL standards.
While even Platte acknowledges RAS is not the end-all, be-all of determining a prospects worth, the value of RAS as a projection tool may be something worth keeping in mind or those interested in evaluating prospects this upcoming draft season.
Loading comments...