Analyzing Derek Carr’s 2021 statistical profile: A follow-up analysis

Given the recent meeting between the New York Jets and Quarterback Derek Carr, I wrote an article detailing Derek Carr’s 2022 season with the Las Vegas Raiders. In analyzing that data, I was surprised by his performance as his numbers were quite ‘meh’ for a QB that I had long considered ‘pretty good.’ As part of that article I made a comparison between Carr’s 2022 and 2021 season. Specifically, I wrote:

Notably, in previous seasons, Carr’s air yards per attempt were considerably lower (8.1 in 2021, 8.0 in 2020, 34 in 2019) so this may have been the result of a change in offensive scheme following the Raiders hiring of Josh McDaniels as Head Coach. Given Carr’s greater success in the seasons preceding 2022 (7th in yards per attempt in 2021, 8th in yards per attempt in 2020, 9th in yards per attempt in 2019), his next team may consider reducing the risk profile of his passing attempts via a lower average depth of target and unlock a superior version of Carr than was seen not seen in 2022 but was seen as recently as 2021.

This clear change in Carr’s performance following the hiring of McDaniels led me to look further into his body of work of Derek Carr. In doing so, I noted his statistical profile was pretty consist in the year’s prior to McDaniels’ hiring. Given his greater success in those seasons, I think it is plausible a team signing him may look to revert him back to his pre-McDaniels’ style of play. Accordingly, I re-gathered the data I reported for his 2021 season in order to give greater insight to what Derek Carr has been before and may become again.

Counting stats from Pro-Football-Reference

626 pass attempts

428completions

4804 yards passing

23 touchdowns

14 interceptions

40 sacks taken

Next Gen Summary Stats from Pro-Football-Reference

QBR of 52.4 (out of 100)

QB Rating of 94.0 (out of 158.3)

Yards per attempt of 7.7 (tied for 18th in the league)

Underlying analytics from PlayerProfiler.com

Expected points added (EPA): +98.1 (13th in league)

Receiver target separation: 3.95 yards (10th in league)

Interceptable passes: 29 (9th in the league)

Air yards per attempt: 8.1 (12th in league)

Deep ball attempts: 77 (5th in league)

Deep ball completion percentage: 36.4% (22nd in league)

Pressured throws: 122 (5th in league)

Pressured completion percentage: 42.6% (21st in league)

Play-action completion percentage: 71.1% (1st in league)

Red-zone completion percentage: 55.8% (19th in league)

Clean pocket completion percentage: 74.6% (3rd in league)

Money throws: 29 (14th in league) as operationalized as “a completed pass requiring expetional skill or athleticism as well as critical completions in clutch moments during the game”

The IMFR (IMissFatRex) Summary

Overall, Carr’s 2021 passing breakdown seems to suggest a more conservative style of QB play in terms of fewer yards per attempt and ‘money throws’ as well as a greater amount of yards per separation on his average target compared to 2022. However, he also did a far better job running play action and of operating from a clean pocket, which may be relevant for a Jets team that is expected to be run heavy and ask less of their QB than other teams do. However, on a more sour note, Carr’s propensity for throwing the ball within reach of the defense and taking sacks seems consistent over the last 2 years and may simply be a wart within his game that the Jets will have to gameplan around in the event that they sign him.

Your thoughts

But what do you think of these numbers? Anything else jump out to you?