Jets interested in Quarterback Derek Carr: Analyzing Carr’s 2022 statistical profile

The New York Jets met with former Las Vegas Raiders quarterback Derek Carr this weekend.

While Derek Carr has been playing in the NFL since 2014, it would be understandable if a fan of the New York Jets was not extremely familiar with Carr’s game given the irregularity with which the Jets play the Raiders. Additionally, the 2022 Raiders largely underachieved and played few nationally televised games.

Given the potential for the Jets to sign Carr, this article serves as a primer of his aggregate 2022 season.

Counting stats

502 pass attempts

305 completions

3522 yards passing

24 touchdowns

14 interceptions

27 sacks taken

Next Gen Summary Stats

QBR of 55.6 (out of 100)

QB Rating of 86.3 (out of 158.3)

Yards per attempt of 7.0 (tied for 18th in the league)

Underlying analytics from PlayerProfiler.com

Overall rank: 17

Expected points added (EPA): +90.9 (11th in league)

Receiver target separation: 1.97 yards (34th in league)

Inteceptable passes: 29 (5th in the league)

Air yards per attempt: 9.4 (2nd in league)

Deep ball attempts: 72 (5th in league)

Deep ball completion percentage: 31.9% (28th in league)

Pressured throws: 76 (14th in league)

Pressured completion percentage: 36.8% (21st in league)

Play-action completion percentage: 64% (14th in league)

Red-zone completion percentage: 42.4% (27th in league)

Clean pocket completion percentage: 65.0% (31st in league)

Money throws: 33 (5th in league) as operationalized as “a completed pass requiring expetional skill or athleticism as well as critical completions in clutch moments during the game”

The IMFR (IMissFatRex) Summary

Based on all of this data, it looks like Derek Carr took a high variance approach to passing this season. His air yards per attempt were high, which led to a number of big plays for both the offense (money throws) and the defense (incompletions, interceptions, and interceptable passes). As expected, this led to a generally low completion rating.

Notably, in previous seasons, Carr’s air yards per attempt were considerably lower (8.1 in 2021, 8.0 in 2020, 34 in 2019) so this may have been the result of a change in offensive scheme following the Raiders hiring of Josh McDaniels as Head Coach. Given Carr’s greater success in the seasons preceding 2022 (7th in yards per attempt in 2021, 8th in yards per attempt in 2020, 9th in yards per attempt in 2019), his next team may consider reducing the risk profile of his passing attempts via a lower average depth of target and unlock a superior version of Carr than was seen not seen in 2022 but was seen as recently as 2021.

Your thoughts

But what do you think of these numbers? Anything else jump out to you?