The first 13 weeks of the NFL season are in the books. On to week 14. Let’s take a look at some of my favorite player prop bets for the Sunday games.
All odds come courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.
C.J. Stroud, Under 215.5 passing yards (-115)
This is kind of a sneaky bet. Stroud has shredded the pass defenses he’s faced this season. But he’s mostly been facing some of the worst pass defenses in the NFL. When he faced the #7 New Orleans Saints pass defense Stroud was limited to 199 passing yards. When he faced the #4 Carolina Panthers pass defense Stroud was limited to 140 passing yards. Now he goes up against the #3 New York Jets pass defense. He’s missing his 2nd and 3rd leading targets. And he’ll be playing in a drenching rain with gusty winds. I think Stroud has one of the worst games of his young career on Sunday. I’ll take the under for C.J. Stroud and 215.5 passing yards.
Zach Wilson, Under 191.5 passing yards (-115)
This is a bad setup for Wilson. The Texans Derek Stingley is having a great year and he should be able to limit the damage Garrett Wilson does in the passing game. The Jets don’t really have any other weapons in the passing game. The weather conditions will be the worst all year. The Jets offensive line is a shambles and the Texans’ Will Anderson is really starting to heat up as a pass rusher. In these conditions I expect a conservative game plan with the Jets trying to win with defense. I’ll take the under for Zach Wilson and 191.5 passing yards.
Zach Wilson, Over 12.5 rushing yards (-115)
Zach Wilson has rushed for more than 12 yards in six of his last seven games. I’ll take the over for Zach Wilson and 12.5 rushing yards.
Garrett Wilson, Under 53.5 receiving yards (-115)
Garrett Wilson has gone under 53 receiving yards in each of his last three games. Now he has to take on one of the best cornerbacks in the NFL in Derek Stingley, and he has to do it in the worst weather conditions of the year. I’ll take the under for Garrett Wilson and 53.5 receiving yards.
Breece Hall, Under 44.5 rushing yards (-105)
Breece Hall has rushed for less than 40 yards in six of his last seven games. Now he faces an outstanding Texans run defense that is ranked 3rd in the NFL in yards allowed per rushing attempt. I’ll take the under for Breece Hall and 44.5 rushing yards.
Breece Hall, Over 21.5 receiving yards (-120)
Breece Hall has gone over 21 receiving yards in six of his last seven games. I’ll take the over for Breece Hall and 21.5 receiving yards.
Tyler Conklin, Over 25.5 receiving yards (-125)
Tyler Conklin has gone over 25 receiving yards in four of his last five games, and in 8 of 12 games overall this season. In weather conditions that favor the short passing game, I’ll take the over for Tyler Conklin and 25.5 receiving yards.
Disclaimer: I am not a professional gambler. I do this for fun, not for profits. I cannot stress enough how bad an idea it would be to place your bets based on my picks. Use your own best judgment, have fun, and whatever you do, do not put a lot of faith in the picks herein.