The first 14 weeks of the NFL season are in the books. On to week 16. Let’s take a look at some of my favorite player prop bets for the Sunday games.
All odds come courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.
Trevor Siemian, Over 0.5 passing touchdowns (-238)
The Washington Commanders pass defense is horrifically bad. They have given up 32 passing touchdowns in 14 games. Justin Fields tossed four touchdown passes against them. Tommy DeVito had three. The last time an opponent did not have a touchdown pass was on opening day of this season, when the Commanders still had their two best pass rushers, both of whom have since been traded away. I have no great faith in Trevor Siemian, but even he should be able to find a way to toss a touchdown pass against this defense. I’ll take the over for Trevor Siemian and 0.5 passing touchdowns.
Sam Howell, Under 208.5 passing yards (-115)
Sam Howell has been held under 205 passing yards five times this season. The Buffalo Bills, the Miami Dolphins, the Atlanta Falcons, the Arizona Cardinals and the Los Angeles Rams have all held Howell under 205 yards. The Jets have a better pass defense than any of those teams. I’ll take the under for Sam Howell and 208.5 passing yards.
Trevor Siemian, Over 202.5 passing yards (-115)
The Commanders have held an opposing quarterback under 215 passing yards just once all season, against the Arizona Cardinals on opening day. This is a historically terrible Commanders pass defense. Trevor Siemian has gone over 202 passing yards in 13 of his last 17 starts. Again, I have little faith in Siemian, but unless the Jets just try to run the ball all day, 203 passing yards should be doable against this defense. I’ll take the over for Trevor Siemian and 202.5 passing yards.
Jahan Dotson, Under 26.5 receiving yards (-115)
Jahan Dotson has a habit of disappearing. He has less than 24 yards receiving in four of his last five games. Now he has the unenviable task of working against the best trio of cornerbacks in the NFL. Dotson will probably face Sauce Gardner most of the game, as the Commanders will likely try to avoid having Terry McLaurin face Sauce. I wouldn’t be surprised if Dotson gets shut out on Sunday. I’ll take the under for Jahan Dotson and 26.5 receiving yards.
Breece Hall, Over 27.5 receiving yards (-110)
Breece Hall has gone over 27 receiving yards in six of his last nine games. I’ll take the over for Breece Hall and 27.5 receiving yards.
Jeremy Ruckert, Over 12.5 receiving yards (-110)
Jeremy Ruckert has had 12+ receiving yards in each of his last five games. I’ll take the over for Jeremy Ruckert and 12.5 receiving yards.
Tyler Conklin, Over 30.5 receiving yards (-110)
Tyler Conklin has gone over 30 receiving yards in five of his last seven games. I’ll take the over for Tyler Conklin and 12.5 receiving yards.
Disclaimer: I am not a professional gambler. I do this for fun, not for profits. I cannot stress enough how bad an idea it would be to place your bets based on my picks. Use your own best judgment, have fun, and whatever you do, do not put a lot of faith in the picks herein.