clock menu more-arrow no yes mobile

Filed under:

What does DraftKings think Trevor Siemian’s output will look like on Sunday?

Is Siemian a good bet to perform well for the Jets?

NFL: New York Jets at Miami Dolphins Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports

On Sunday, Trevor Siemian will start at quarterback for the New York Jets when they play against the Washington Commanders. For many, Siemian playing in lieu of Zach Wilson in and of itself is a positive thing. But what can fans reasonably expect from him on Sunday? To try to answer that question, I will be using the DraftKings Sportsbook prop lines and converting them to an implied probability. All numbers are reflective of Friday evening at about 6PM.

DraftKings has Siemian’s over/under for passing yards set at 203.5, with a line of -115, meaning you can bet $115 to win $100. We can think of this as DraftKings placing an implied probability of about 50% that Siemian will clear this amount.

DraftKings also provides alternate passing yards options which can inform us of what the likelihood of a range of outcomes might be. Six are listed:

  • 150 yards (-600, meaning you can bet $600 to win $100): Implied probability of ~86%
  • 175 (-270): Implied probability of ~73%
  • 200 yards (-130): Implied probability of ~56%
  • 225 yards (+155, meaning you can bet $100 to win $155): ~39%
  • 250 yards (+300): Implied probability of ~25%
  • 275 yards (+650): Implied probability of ~14%

So, overall, DraftKings seems to be pretty confident that Siemian will not perform at a high level when it comes to passing yardage. Even clearing a rather attainable 250 yards bar is considered just a 25% likelihood.

This DraftKings’ lack of faith in Siemian is also reflected in his other betting props: pass attempts, completions, and interceptions. Specifically, they set his roughly 50% chance of happening point at 31.5 attempts and 19.5 completions. They also set his under/over for interceptions at .5. If you bet the under (meaning he throws no interceptions) then you can bet $100 to win $114, whereas if you bet the over (meaning he throws at least one INT) then you can bet $145 to win $100. This reflects that DraftKings thinks it’s more likely that he throws an interception than not, which is not exactly a glowing projection for Siemian.

Putting this together, DraftKings does not seem to expect much from Siemian on Sunday. For fans rooting for a somewhat surprising win given the state of the season, they will likely have to hope that Siemian exceeds these expectations.