On Sunday, the New York Jets won their first game in over a month, defeating the Houston Texans. For many Jets fans, this was a reason for jubilation as their team won a game. For others, a cause of misery as their team did some harm to their draft stock. So what exactly did winning this game gain and cost the Jets?
What they gained
The chief goal of a football team in the regular season is to make the playoffs. The way to do that? Win games. But not all wins are created equal. For example, the New England Patriots have been eliminated from the NFL playoffs, so a win means far less to them than it would the Buffalo Bills, who are currently tied for the final playoff spot.
But what about for the Jets? What does this win do for their playoff odds? In reality, very little based on their playoff odds.
So they won, but did it matter? Not really. It kept their playoff hopes alive but they are still two games out of the Wild Card and behind 7 teams for the last playoff spot.
The argument the optimistic fan makes is that the Jets can win out and they would have a chance. But how good of a chance? About 10% according to the New York Times. And if they lose even one game? Less than 1%. At best the Jets are a longshot, and those odds only come into play if they’re perfect the rest of the way.
Overall, this win did very little to help the 2023 Jets. It’s a nice memory for fans for a few weeks, but little more.
What they lost
In terms of what they lost, the primary thing is draft position. After the New England Patriots beat the Pittsburgh Steelers on Thursday, the Jets somewhat controlled their own draft destiny. A loss this week would have moved them up to the 4th pick and they would have been able to jump the Patriots by losing to them in Week 18. In all likelihood, losing out would likely have landed the Jets either the 2nd or 3rd pick based on records and tiebreakers. Now though? Well, they currently hold the 7th pick and the upward mobility is significantly lessened.
To begin, they now pick 7th with a record of 5-8. The teams they can reasonably jump in the draft order have 4 or 5 wins.
- 4 win teams: Washington Commanders
- 5 win teams who currently hold the tiebreaker over the Jets: Chicago Bears and Las Vegas Raiders
As luck would have it, the Jets play the Commanders before the season ends, so a loss to them likely allows the Jets to jump them in the draft. The Las Vegas Raiders seem unlikely to win a game based on their play of late. In an ideal world, the Bears win a game and the Jets jump them in the draft order. That would move the Jets up to 5.
On paper, going from pick 3 to pick 5 seems trivial... but, in reality, it’s a pretty steep drop based on the way that draft picks are valued.
For example, if we use the Drafttek trade value chart, the value of the 3rd overall pick is 2200. The value of the 5th is 1700. That’s a gap of 500... which is the value equivalent of the the 40th pick in the draft. So basically, this win cost the Jets a mid second round pick’s worth of draft position.
A second round pick for less than a 1% increase in playoff odds? Sounds like a steep price to pay to me, personally. What do you think?
Would you trade a mid second round pick for Sunday’s win?
This poll is closed
No, a 1% increase isn’t worth it
Yes, give me all the winz