What are the New York Jets playoff odds heading into their game against the Las Vegas Raiders?

The New York Jets were in control of their destiny heading into their game against the Los Angeles Chargers. A win would have propelled them to 5-3, leaving them one game behind the Miami Dolphins for the division with two games left to play between the two teams. Beyond that, they would have knocked the Los Angeles Chargers to 3-5, leaving them two games out of a wild card spot while the Jets would have been tied with the Cincinnati Bengals for the 7 seed. Instead, the Jets are 4-4, holding the 3rd place spot for their division and on the outside looking in for a wild card spot.

Needless to say, that isn’t ideal at the seasons’ halfway mark. Indeed, according to the New York Times, the Jets now hold a ~17% chance of making the playoffs based on the random draw of 27,880 simulations that I received. Within that 17%, the New York Times gives them a 6% chance to host a Wild Card game and a 12% chance to play a road Wild Card game. I’m assuming the difference in 6+12 (18) and 17 is due to rounding error.

While this leaves the Jets as a somewhat unlikely playoff team, bigger deficits have been overcome. For the Jets to improve this, they will need to start this week. Indeed, beating the Raiders would improve their odds to ~25%, which is a notable improvement. Beyond that, if they can win against the Raiders this week and then the Buffalo Bills next week then the Jets odds would improve to ~48% which is a toss up for all intents and purposes. By comparison, if they lose the next two weeks then their odds would drop to ~5%

Long story short, the Jets still have time to right this ship. The next two weeks will be critical in doing so.