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How harmful was the failed Hail Mary for the New York Jets’ odds of victory?

The Fail Mary sunk the Jets

Syndication: The Record Chris Pedota, / USA TODAY NETWORK

The New York Jets have always been a unique kind of bad. While some teams stink, the Jets manage to stink in a spectacular fashion. The latest evidence? Turning a Hail Mary pass into a pick 6 that turned a 10-6 game into a 17-6 game that favored the Miami Dolphins in the blink of an eye.

As is painfully obvious, this play harmed the Jets odds of victory. But how big was that impact?

To figure that out, I used the NFLFastR package much the same as I did last week. Using their win probability numbers, I found that this interception reduced the Jets’ odds of victory from 39% to only 17%... a 22% decrease that basically took the Jets from “toss up” to “significant underdog” within the context of the game to that point. Ouch.

Heading into this game the Jets’ playoff hopes were basically over, but any hope that lingered basically died on this play. A fittingly disappointing end to a thoroughly disappointing season.