The New York Jets offense has been rather bad (to put it lightly). Much has been said about how the Jets need to change their player usage in an attempt to lead to some positive change. Another potential point of change has been their personnel package usage.
As a primer, NFL offenses are often described using two number sequences, such as 11, 12, or 21. While this may not be intuitive, they are actually rather simple in practice. As outlined by Sharp Football Analysis, the first number corresponds to the number of running backs and the second to the number of tight ends. For example, 11 would mean 1 running back and 1 tight end while 21 would mean 2 running backs and 1 tight end. From there, we can then subtract the number of running backs and tight ends from 5 to determine the number of wide receivers that are on the field. For example, in 11 personnel there would be 3 wide receivers and in 21 personnel there would be two wide receivers.
Per Sumer Sports when filtering team to only the New York Jets, the Jets have used 5 larger personnel groupings: 11, 12, 13, 21, and 22. The usage and expected points added per play are as follows for the 558 plays recorded by Sumer Sports:
- 11 (64.3% of plays): EPA/Pass of -.3 and EPA/Rush of -.25 with passes called on 78.8% of plays
- 12 (17.7% of plays): EPA/Pass of -.07 and EPA/Rush of -.21 with passes called on 52.5% of plays
- 13 (8.4% of plays): EPA/Pass of .1 and EPA/Rush of -.32 with passes called on 44.7% of plays
- 21 (7% of plays): EPA/Pass of .25 and EPA/Rush of .06 with passes called on 48.7% of plays
- 22 (2.2% of plays): EPA/Pass of 1.17 and EPA/Rush of -.08 with passes called on 16.7% of plays
Overall, the Jets offense has been bad in most cases. The lone exceptions to that rule seem to be packages that have been sparsely used, which may simply be a function of a small sample size. However, given the clear lack of success in both the run and pass game in 11 personnel, the Jets may be better suited to use it less even if it has been by far their most common grouping this season. This makes sense based on the data. It also makes sense logically. Considering how bad the Jets wide receivers after Garrett Wilson have been, running less 11 personnel would lessen the number of (bad) wide receivers on the field.
What do you think? Is there any package that you would like to see the Jets run more or less?