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It is not exactly a controversial statement at this point to say that running back has become one of the lowest value positions in the league.
Most teams use some sort of backfield by committee. It doesn’t require premium resources to find a competent runner.
Even with this devaluation of the position, I think most observers would agree that the top running backs the league still have a lot of value.
This leads to one natural question. What sets these backs apart from the rest of the pack?
There is no one answer. Clearly the ability to break tackles and make people miss are valuable attributes. Sites like Pro Football Focus have created statistics that calculate these numbers to isolate what a running back is contributing to a given play.
In today’s NFL receiving skill is another thing that separates the top backs. It might be cliche to say, “It’s a passing league,” but cliches are frequently true. A back who creates mismatches in the passing game adds surplus value.
I would argue that perhaps the most significant area where a running back can add value is an ability to create big plays. At the start of a rush, a back has to depend on his offensive line. If he is hit in the backfield, he probably isn’t going to gain much.
More than ten yards down the field, the back isn’t really dependent on anybody else. He either has to make somebody miss in the open field or turn on the jets to run away from the defense.
With this in mind, I decided to take a look at how many yards running backs gained per season that were somewhere between the 11th and 99th yard on a given play over the last decade. I counted yardage gained both on rushes and receptions since contributions in the passing game count too.
The number that jumped out to me was 300.
Here is the list of players who posted at least 300 of these big play yards in a season over the last decade.
2012
Adrian Peterson 842
Doug Martin 570
C.J. Spiller 570
Jamaal Charles 559
Chris Johnson 411
Marshawn Lynch 381
Ray Rice 376
Matt Forte 337
Alfred Morris 327
Arian Foster 308
Reggie Bush 307
2013
LeSean McCoy 587
Jamaal Charles 530
Matt Forte 456
Reggie Bush 378
C.J. Spiller 359
Marshawn Lynch 355
Adrian Peterson 351
Andre Ellington 317
DeMarco Murray 305
2014
Le’Veon Bell 591
DeMarco Murray 463
Justin Forsett 452
Arian Foster 436
Eddie Lacy 399
Marshawn Lynch 390
Jeremy Hill 361
LeSean McCoy 313
Matt Forte 312
Jamaal Charles 311
2015
Doug Martin 511
Adrian Peterson 456
Todd Gurley 417
Lamar Miller 379
Chris Ivory 344
Charles Sims 337
Tavon Austin 326
Darren McFadden 323
Mark Ingram 323
DeAngelo Williams 319
Devonta Freeman 307
2016
Ezekiel Elliott 584
David Johnson 518
LeSean McCoy 446
Jordan Howard 433
Isaiah Crowell 401
Devonta Freeman 397
Melvin Gordon 366
Jay Ajayi 365
Tevin Coleman 354
Spencer Ware 333
DeMarco Murray 323
Mark Ingram 305
2017
Todd Gurley 650
Alvin Kamara 499
Kareem Hunt 493
LeSean McCoy 436
Mark Ingram 422
Melvin Gordon 355
Bilal Powell 331
Leonard Fournette 313
Chris Thompson 311
2018
Saquon Barkley 728
Christian McCaffrey 483
Ezekiel Elliott 439
Todd Gurley 416
Tarik Cohen 389
Joe Mixon 388
Nick Chubb 370
Kareem Hunt 363
Melvin Gordon 362
Adrian Peterson 348
Tevin Coleman 339
James Conner 329
Alvin Kamara 320
Phillip Lindsay 312
Matt Breida 301
2019
Christian McCaffrey 548
Nick Chubb 485
Austin Ekeler 480
Saquon Barkley 472
Derrick Henry 464
Leonard Fournette 420
Miles Sanders 419
Dalvin Cook 393
Aaron Jones 373
2020
Derrick Henry 530
Alvin Kamara 470
Jonathan Taylor 388
Dalvin Cook 378
Aaron Jones 376
Nick Chubb 340
2021
Jonathan Taylor 656
Nick Chubb 383
Dalvin Cook 327
If you were making a list of running backs who mattered in a given season over the last ten years in the NFL, it would almost entirely overlap with that list.
Every running back who made an All Pro First or Second Team in the last decade was a member of the 300 Club that season except Eddie Lacy in 2013 (276), Le’Veon Bell in 2017 (285), and Joe Mixon in 2021 (271). Those three were so close that we can make them honorary members of the 300 Club. (And all three made the Club in other seasons.)
Some seasons have produced more members of the 300 Club than others. Over the course of the decade, there were 95 individual seasons that made it into the Club. That averages out to 9.5 per year. A little more than one quarter of the league having a difference-making back adds up if you think the running back position is generally devalued, but there remains a class of impact players at the very top.
Of course for the Jets this is not an academic exercise. There is relevance here. The team traded up for a running back in the second round, Breece Hall.
The Jets probably could have found a solid backfield without using high end resources. The fact they invested so heavily in Hall suggests they view him as a top end talent.
I think the 300 Club provides us with a useful barometer to measure his success.
How much can we expect, and how soon can we expect it? Unlike many other positions, running backs have an easier time producing early in their career. In fact it is when they provide the most value.
Doug Martin (2012), Ezekiel Elliott (2016), Alvin Kamara (2017), Leonard Fournette (2017), Saquon Barkley (2018), Nick Chubb (2018), Phillip Lindsay (2018), and Jonathan Taylor (2020) are among the backs who gained membership their rookie seasons.
Given the expectations for Hall and run heavy nature of the Jets offense, I don’t think it’s unreasonable to have hopes he will make it this season.
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