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Open The Floodgates

Open The Floodgates

Wow, what a week we just had.

The NFL saw some seismic shifts in the last 7 days. Pre-2022 league year trades became official with the likes of Russell Wilson and Carson Wentz (HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA) finding new homes. Some blockbuster free agents like Von Miller and Allen Robinson joined established contenders to make them even greater than what they were. Superstar wide receivers like Davante Adams and Amari Cooper were moved (with the former netting a dowry for his new marriage with the Raiders) by teams that should probably be looking to replace them in the first round next month. Even Deshaun Watson, who is fresh off beating the rap- I mean, avoiding criminal indictment on the allegations that kept him at home for the entire 2021 season, has found his way to Cleveland and worked out enough guaranteed money that he can probably buy himself enough massages so that he never has to get out of bed to stay in football shape.

And then there were the Jets, doing honest work (sort of) that mostly flew under the radar amid all of the league wide turmoil. Did they make any splashes? Sure, I guess Laken Tomlinson counts as a splash considering that he is now the fifth-highest paid guard in the NFL. Other than that, though, the Jets were mostly retaining pieces that they wanted to keep and plucking key free agents from the market that can help their team rise to the next level. While the AFC West and Browns were busy making moves that captured all the headlines, the Jets were free to make their moves for the guys they wanted. They might not have found any superstars, but that’s fine; we’re not finished yet.

I wanted to take the time to review what the Jets have done and what their actions will mean for the future of this team. I mentioned on the first day of the legal tampering period how things felt different this time around than in years past. Well, I still feel good about what the team has done, though the feelings of elation have faded a bit with time. I like almost everything they’ve done, though as more details have emerged, my feelings were tempered by some elements of hesitancy.

The moves they’ve made, I generally agree with them. I like a lot of the new faces that will be coming into the Jets' facility in the summer. The contracts mostly seemed like reasonable values… but I’m not a big fan of the way the contracts were structured. I’m happy they gave out as many multi-year contracts as they did, but I’m not as happy about pushing cap hits into 2023 and 2024. Why? I looked around the NFL at some of the blockbuster trades and found myself thinking that the Jets should be in a position to make one of those trades themselves in 2023 and 2024 when they are a more complete team with a good sense of what their biggest impediments are (position-wise) to contending.

Pushing cap hits further down the line is a valid strategy, I know, but I would think that you’d want a team where you absolutely know your core elements before you start putting their credit on your tab to be paid off another year. The fact that the salary cap is going to rise significantly in 2024 helps (and if the schedule-makers are smart with their prime time matchups this season, it could happen a year earlier), but it rises for every team, not just the Jets. The Jets are currently projected to have $73.6 million in effective cap space in 2023 (before any rookie contracts from the 2022 draft are signed), which is 14th-most in the NFL at present. Yes, the Jets can make some cuts (CJ Mosley, Corey Davis and Carl Lawson all look likely to be cut at this particular moment), but so can the other teams in front of them in cap space (as well as some teams behind them that could enter teardowns in 2023). Having that additional cap space is going to be key to bringing in the final pieces in free agency that will make this team a true playoff contender in 2023.

And let’s take a look at some noteworthy free agents that are set to command big price tags in 2023 if they don’t agree to extensions with their current teams or get tagged: QB Tom Brady, WR Tyreek Hill, WR DK Metcalf, WR AJ Brown, DL JJ Watt, DL Fletcher Cox, and DL Marcus Davenport just to name a few. Oh, you noticed that first name, did you?

Beyond even free agents, who knows what the trade market could look like a year from now? Maybe there will be a renewed interest WR Calvin Ridley, or maybe whoever the Texans draft next month will demand a trade after just one season because they just can’t take it anymore. The Jets have not yet made any trades this offseason to acquire proven players (but they did make one trade that was truly unbelievable). I’m a little sour that we really haven’t done much to address the wide receiver position while several other teams have (see those trades again for proof), but I can trust that there’s probably a good reason for it.

So, with all that in mind, let me review the multi-year signings the Jets made. I’ll work in descending order of highest contract values and give my overall reactions to each with signing grades and what I expect from them.

Feel free to leave your feedback or suggestions below this post.

Laken Tomlinson, G, Age 30

Contract Signed: 3 Years, $40 million, $27 million guaranteed (contract structure unknown at time of writing)

My Grade: A-

I did not think the 49ers were going to let Tomlinson leave. I thought that once Jimmy Garoppolo was out the door, they’d use the savings from his departure to sign Tomlinson to either a short or long term deal. I didn’t scout him in my offseason outlook series, so confident I was that he’d never hit the open market, or that he wouldn’t consider leaving San Francisco even if he did.

I’m so glad I was wrong. Take a lot of what I said about Andrew Norwell in my outlook on the interior offensive line and substitute Tomlinson’s name along with his greater quality of play. Tomlinson was a top 10 guard in the NFL by PFF's grading among those who played at least 1,000 offensive snaps and is already familiar with the intricacies of the offensive scheme thanks to his history with this staff with the 49ers. He has never played RG during his time in the NFL and hasn’t done it since his college days nearly 8 years ago, but like I said about Norwell, you could do worse than betting on a former Pro Bowler like him to make that transition.

I love this signing. The only reason I gave it an A- is that I think he might be a tad overpaid, but the extra ~$1.3 million in average annual value isn't that big of a deal. I don't know the exact terms of the contract (I might sour on it a bit if this contract is too backloaded like others the Jets have signed this offseason), but given that this was the biggest contract the Jets gave out this offseason, I imagine that they are planning on having him finish out the contract all three years at RG.

D.J. Reed Jr., CB, Age 25

Contract Signed: 3 years, $33 million, (contract guarantees and structure unknown at time of writing)

My Grade (subject to change pending contract terms): B+

I never had Reed on my radar, as I exclusively looked at the second tier in my outlook on cornerbacks. I suppose that wasn't fair to guys like Reed, who look like they could be giant assets to a defense that was the worst in the NFL last season and the worst in franchise history. After spending the first four years of his career in the NFC West, Reed cashed in on his breakout 2021 campaign and will rejoin former DC Saleh on the east coast and immediately slide in as a starting corner on this defense.

In 14 games in 2021 (missed 1 game with a groin injury, 2 games due to COVID-19), Reed tallied 78 tackles (62 solo), 0.0 sacks, 0 TFL, 0 FF, 10 PD and 2 INT. He definitely had a very good safety unit behind him in Quandre Diggs and Marquise Blair to help on the back end, but he still held his own as a starting outside corner for a team that had just lost Shaquill Griffin in free agency with very little else to offer at the position. PFF loved his run defense, awarding him a season grade of 85.8 (higher than any individual game grade) in that category, so even with his relatively short stature, he can shed blocks and make plays on the ball carrier. Aside from an injury suffered in the 2020 offseason that cost him the first six games of 2020, Reed has been able to remain healthy, playing at least 14 games in every other season.

Reed would become a starting outside corner opposite Bryce Hall (or an as-of-yet unnamed rookie), capable of playing 90% of defensive snaps (as he did 12 times in 2021) in a game but probably ceding some snaps to Brandin Echols and Javelin Guidry for their superior speed. He will need the deep safety support when matching up with speedier wideouts, but he is very good in coverage (only his rookie season graded below 69.8 from PFF) and will fight to keep tabs on his opponents when targeted.

I think this is a good signing, and the average salary seems reasonable to me. Reed has experience with Saleh's system (and rose to prominence in a similar system in Seattle), so if the Jets are able to find a capable free safety to work behind him (which, to this point, I'm not so sure they have), Reed can be a definite boost to this defense. I need to know more about his contract terms before I render my final judgment; I suspect he probably has the same backloads that most of the other signings have received this offseason, but the guarantee structure is probably one where he gets most of his guarantees in his first year and probably a signing bonus serving as his main guarantee in the following seasons. He's young enough that I can safely assume that he will be able to finish the entire contract with the Jets unless he completely flops in New York, but he likely won't be a true lockdown corner with his lack of size and speed, which could make him expendable in 2024 if the Jets have acquired another, better corner.

C.J. Uzomah, TE, Age 29

Contract Signed: 3 years, $24 million, $15 million guaranteed, ~$4.67 million cap hit in 2022

My Grade: B+

Though I did look at Uzomah as an option from the second tier in my outlook on tight ends, I was surprised to see that he chose to leave the only team he had ever played for after they made it all the way to the Super Bowl just a month prior. I like the public sentiment he expressed at his introductory press conference where he said that he wanted to be a Jet because he was excited about the direction the team was headed in. It definitely sounds positive to hear Uzomah- a locker room leader in Cincinnati- preparing to bring his energy to this locker room.

Uzomah was the Bengals' top TE in 2021, hauling in 49 passes in 16 games for 493 yards (30.8 YPG) and 5 TDs. In the postseason, he arguably performed better in a more limited sample size (suffered an MCL sprain in the AFC Championship game), hauling in 15 passes for 146 yards (36.5 YPG) and 1 TD. He is more of a receiving option than a blocking option, as I mentioned in that outlook, but it's not like he's irredeemable as a run blocker (and he's been generally good in his career as a pass blocker).

I'm not a big fan of the contract the way it is structured. It's not just that he exceeded my expectations on what his salary would be (I did undersell him in my outlook, I'll admit); I'm a little annoyed that his cap hit of 2022 rises about $5 million for both 2023 and 2024. Given his age and injury history (it's not terrible, but you do have to consider it), I wouldn't expect him to finish the contract the way it is now. Unfortunately, if he ends up like the last Bengal to defect to the Jets in Carl Lawson and misses the majority of his first season in New York (or doesn't perform up to standards), the Jets would be pretty much stuck with him in 2023 (no cap relief with a release unless done post-6/1, which would free only $1 million). I don't expect him to bottom out with the Jets in 2022, but it's something you do have to account for, especially after the Jets went out and signed another TE in Tyler Conklin in free agency to a lengthy and valuable contract.

I still like this signing; even if you discount his on field production, his work in the community and the locker room should be instrumental in elevating the tenor and culture of the rest of the team. With the expected departure of the other top TEs from 2021, I imagine that Uzomah would assume some kind of captaincy or an undeclared, undefined leadership position. I think he's probably going to see the field more often than his fellow tight ends on the roster assuming a good run of health, though the Jets might see more value on early downs in others in the TE room for if they can find a better run-blocker, so it might be the case where someone else serves as the starting TE. When the Jets run their 12 personnel groupings, I'd think that the Jets could split Uzomah out into the slot or use him on the outside shoulder of a different TE on outside handoffs. Uzomah is able to work as a fullback too, though it's not where he spent much time in Cincinnati, so he wouldn't be the top option aligning out of the backfield if the Jets are able to acquire another FB. Bottom line is that he's versatile enough to do most things at an average level and can be an above-average receiving option, so he should be an asset if he gets to play enough in his first season with the Jets.

Tyler Conklin, TE, Age 27

Contract Signed: 3 years, $21 million, (contract guarantees and structure unknown at time of writing)

My grade (subject to change pending contract terms): B-

I was a little confused as to the Jets' roster-construction intentions when they signed Conklin to a three-year contract similar to the one they gave Uzomah. With the contract structure not having been disclosed at this time, I can't say this for certain, but if Conklin accounts for more than $5 million on the 2022 cap, it would position the Jets in a way that they'd be currently spending the 6th-most cap in the league at the position ahead of a draft that is believed to be rich with TE talent (though they haven't cut Ryan Griffin yet, so they are probably not going to be among the top spenders at the position anyway).

Don't get me wrong; I think that this is a good signing. If you read my mock offseason, you'll know that Conklin was my preferred FA signing after the franchise tags were applied. I didn't think he'd get more than the $5 million AAV I projected, but I'm not particularly picky about it. The fact that Conklin was the second FA signed to a multi-year contract (and I can safely assume he was backloaded and guaranteed to some extent) is what concerned me, and it dampened my initial reaction to Uzomah's signing. I think Conklin has a higher upside than Uzomah does, given that he was a backup in the Vikings' offense until 2021 after a summer injury to Irv Smith Jr. forced him into the full-time starting role. He might have more room to grow in a different system as both a receiver and a blocker, though his receiving prowess wasn't on display until this past season and PFF has never been a fan of his run-blocking (54.7 grade in that category in 2021).

Uzomah is more proven and more versatile than Conklin, but Conklin may prove to be a better receiving option, and his younger age makes it more likely that he sees out the end of his contract than his older counterpart. I don't know the details of his guarantee structure so I can't make any determinations about his roster status for 2024, but I think it's reasonable to say that he will likely be here for that season even if he has minimal guarantees. Maybe the Jets will try to develop him as a fullback, though it's not something the Vikings really tried to do. More likely is that Conklin will work inline or on the outside shoulder of another tight end when on the field. He graded well as a special teamer in 2020 when he was a backup on offense, so he could return to being a special teamer if he serves as a backup behind Uzomah in this offense.

I think that this signing effectively ended the chances of the Jets taking a high-round swing on a TE in April. It would not be a good allocation of resources to have multiple high-dollar TEs (Uzomah and Conklin rank 15th and 18th respectively in AAV at their position) in front of a 2nd or 3rd round rookie. I would not rule out a later-round project being on the cards, as I do think the Jets should look for another option with better blocking than Conklin who could compete for a roster spot with Trevon Wesco and Kenny Yeboah for the third spot on the depth chart. Jake Ferguson seems like a good choice should he make it to the 5th round, though I remember not being impressed with his performance at the combine. Charlie Kolar is another name to watch out for, though I have not been able to get a good sense of where his stock is right now, so he might not be available late in the draft. They have a good starting component with both guys they signed, but it does not feel complete right now.

Jordan Whitehead, S, Age 25

Contract Signed: 2 years, $14.5 million, $7 million guaranteed, ~$4.2 million cap hit in 2022

My Grade: C+

Maybe this is a little harsh. Whitehead definitely fills a need for the Jets, and my grade is not a reflection on him as a player. I think he's a definite starter as a safety (probably as a strong safety but can handle duties as a free safety) and his AAV is definitely reasonable value. My issue is the contract structure, and of the multi-year contracts given out this offseason by the team, this one is my least favorite. I like the player, really. He seems like he's fully on board with the Jets' "All Gas, No Brake" mantra, citing his excitement to play for Saleh when he was introduced to the media. Combine that with his productive background and scheme fit (excels in zone coverage, which the Jets tend to run), the addition should be a positive one.

In 14 games in 2021 (missed the season opener with a hamstring injury, then 2 games in December with a calf injury), Whitehead tallied 73 tackles (58 solo), 0.0 sacks, 5 TFL, 1 FF, 8 PD and 2 INT. Like the other noteworthy DB the Jets signed, PFF loved his run defense in 2021, giving him a season grade of 81.5 in that category, though the majority of his games were graded much lower (only 3 single game grades above 75.0). His tackling wasn't as well-regarded, having a season grade of 54.8 for his 15 missed tackles. I don't know how many of his missed tackles came in his work as a safety (more than a third of his snaps saw him align as a corner or at the line of scrimmage), but he was markedly better as a tackler in 2020 when he spent much more time as a safety (less than a quarter of his snaps aligned elsewhere), earning a 65.5 season grade in that category for his 11 missed tackles. If the Jets limit his snaps at other spots, I think his 2020 tackling form could return.

Again, I like the player; I do not like the contract. His 2022 cap hit of ~$4.2 million rises to ~$10.2 million in 2023. That's a steep incline, and given the fact that the structure only leaves his signing bonus as guaranteed in 2023 (sub-$3 million per season), that makes me think that the Jets wanted to leave open an escape hatch after the first year. Yes, I did have some concerns with them not doing that with Uzomah, but the situation is different because the Jets signed multiple TEs who can start whereas they only signed Whitehead to be a definite starter (and re-signed Joyner to be a depth player, I hope). This contract structure makes me think that they don't know if Whitehead is going to be on the roster in 2023, as a release would save upwards of $7.2 million on the cap.

Jacob Martin, DE, Age 26

Contract Signed: 3 years, $13.5 million (plus an additional $1.5 million with NLTBE incentives), $6 million guaranteed, ~$2.4 million cap hit for 2022

My Grade: C+

Martin is a pure depth signing that I never really had on my radar. I didn't associate the Texans with a team having quality pieces on their DL aside from Maliek Collins, and among my preferred second tier options, I think I would have preferred Al-Quadin Muhammad, who signed a comparable, cheaper contract with the Bears that was worth a little more than I projected in my outlook on defensive ends. Neither man has gotten much run on special teams in recent seasons as they assumed starting duties, but they were roughly equivalent in prior seasons (Martin graded higher in his 2018 rookie season than in any other season either has had).

In 17 games in 2021, Martin tallied 23 tackles (11 solo), 4.0 sacks, 5 TFL, 2 FF, 3 PD and 0 INT. Muhammad had the better statistical season, though you have to note that he both received more playing time (100 more snaps) and had a higher-quality DL to work alongside. If you compare their PFF grades, you'd probably find that Muhammad is the better run defender while Martin is the better pass rusher. Martin was a decent pass-rusher in his first season as a starter with a PFF grade of 69.9 in that category, while his run defense was about average with a grade of 58.3. Part of his appeal is that he is able to work off both sides of the line (opposite either tackle), though the difference in scheme may see him shunted into a single side more often than the other.

I still think I would have preferred Muhammad to the contract he got (2 years, $8 million) if given the choice, but I think this is fine. The guarantee structure makes it so that the Jets could get out of his contract in either 2023 or 2024 if they so choose, though considering the dead cap hit in 2023 (~$2.7 million if done before 6/1), I imagine that the Jets will probably want to give him two seasons at a minimum and they re-evaluate in 2024 whether he would be worth the remaining ~$4.8 million (could save $3.5 million with a release). It's a decent contract for a DPR who could be a starter in the event of an injury absence to someone on the depth chart in front of him, and maybe his stint as a starter with Houston will have helped him develop into a high-quality rotational piece when he joins a greater DL with the Jets.

Braxton Berrios, WR, Age 26

Contract Signed: 2 years, $12 million, $7 million guaranteed, ~$3.8 million cap hit in 2022

My Grade: B

I'm definitely happy that the Jets were able to re-sign Berrios, who turned himself into a top end return man in 2021 and a capable slot option. He had an established connection with QB Zach Wilson, one that flourished in the final few games of the season when Berrios was essentially the only receiver the Jets had on the field when Corey Davis and Elijah Moore were on IR. The hope is that Berrios wouldn't be a starting offensive player in 2022, but he makes for good depth in addition to his abilities as a returner.

I covered his performance and upside in my outlook on receivers, and I'm certainly glad that the Jets were able to retain him when the rumors were that he was likely on his way out in search of money and a starting opportunity for a team that needs a starting slot receiver (which the Jets will likely have in Elijah Moore or whoever they end up drafting now that Crowder is a free agent). They only did a two-year contract rather than a four-year contract like I had hoped for, though I suppose that Berrios might have preferred the shorter deal for the chance to get back on the market or another extension in short order.

The length stings a little bit, but the cap structure also bothers me. Like Uzomah's contract, Berrios's cap hit rises by $5 million after his first season on this deal, making him a rather expensive backup in 2023. The way it's structured makes me think that the Jets are planning on releasing him after the 2022 season unless he develops further into a definite starter over Corey Davis (who himself might be released if he posts a repeat 2021 campaign in 2022). A release after one season would charge ~$3.2 million in dead cap in 2023 while saving $5 million, so if the Jets need to retool their offensive weaponry again next offseason, Berrios would be a prime cut candidate. I don't want that to happen, but that's the way it looks right now.

Overall Grade: B+

These signings coupled with the other single-year re-signings make it feel like the Jets have found some long term pieces that should help bring this team to the competitive level in 2022 and the playoff level in 2023, even if there's a solid chance that two or three of them might not be on the team for that playoff run. I like each player, but I feel that the contracts were not uniformly in line with my own desires on how to pay for each one. Maybe these signings with their contract structures are part of a larger scheme on how to get returns on these players even if that is not on the team (I can see the Jets trying to trade one of Uzomah or Conklin in 2023, for instance), but right now, the backloading methods are not my favorite.

Thanks for reading.

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