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AGOP: Jets 2022 Mock Offseason

Edit: I was not aware of the AGOP challenge underway when I began working on this post. I've tweaked a few things (nothing major: I forgot about Justin Hardee Sr and Eddy Pineiro in my final cutdown, but they wouldn't have made the roster anyway. I also needed to change my signing of Deonte Harris for Tre'Quan Smith due to the rules about signing other teams' RFAs, but that's not too big of a deal) in this post that will make it eligible for the contest. May the best Jets fan win, I guess.

Hello, and welcome back to my general insanity as I plunge into what is often the best part of a Jets fan's life: the official start of activity in the offseason. The tag deadline has just passed, so now, unless there are any last-minute extensions signed somewhere around the league, we now know who will be hitting the open market and who will be on lock. It's a shame that WR Davante Adams was tagged, but it was expected. I do regret that others I was interested in, namely WR Chris Godwin and TE Dalton Schultz, who I would have targeted first in free agency, did not hit the open market. I'm also sad to see that TE David Njoku and TE Mike Geiscki were tagged by their teams (the latter was expected), as they would have been nice options to add to this team. Still, even outside of those players, there are some who the Jets can target who would definitely upgrade the team.

The time has finally come. The Jets are one of the teams best-equipped to attack this offseason with their wealth of available resources, perhaps even the best team if you just look at the value of their spending capabilities and draft assets. This is a crucial offseason for the franchise; not only is it a make-or-break year for the regime (and possibly Zach Wilson, too), but it is the offseason that should provide the fundamentals for the next several years of Jets football. The foundation that will be laid this offseason could help determine the quality of the team for years to come, and if the Jets are successful, it could be viewed as the turning point for what finally takes this team from perennial joke to perennial contender.

It's time for the Jets to finally exercise their talents off the field to help put together a compelling product on the field. To that effect, I'd like to put forth my two cents on how the Jets should use their resources. Back in my first post on this forum, I said that the Jets' front office need to be smarter than us to justify, and I assume they are. My input probably can't be proven to be definitively horrible unless the Jets actually do everything I want them to do and they fall apart. Likewise, I doubt it can be proven to be anything of substance unless they do and they end up being of relevance this coming season.

So, in that respect, not much of what I do here will matter. I hope you are interested in reading it and that we can find some common ground in it, but it's unlikely much of what I hope for will come to fruition. I just want this offseason to be a successful one for the Jets, even if it doesn't look much like the mock offseason I'm about to describe. These are my opinions on how the Jets can get a successful 2022 offseason that translates into a successful 2022 season.

Feel free to leave your feedback or suggestions below this post.

Rules

Before I begin, I'm going to set aside some rules for myself that will inform on how I approach this offseason. For offseason signings pre-draft, I am using Over the Cap's Salary Cap Calculator to make my roster moves and The Draft Network's Mock Draft Machine to make my mock draft. In these systems, I am setting aside some rules for myself.

  1. The calculator from OTC does not give players or teams any agency in negotiating contracts or trades. In my offseason outlook series, I attempted to ascribe what I consider reasonable values for players and trades. I don't believe that every contract I projected is going to be the best contracts those players will receive; I believe that those are contracts they would likely sign should they join the Jets. Since players cannot negotiate, however, I will do my best to keep contract values to where they were, with some limited exceptions.

  2. In my use of the calculator, I need to have at least 70 players on the roster prior to the draft. That shouldn't be too difficult for the Jets to achieve, since they currently have 61 men on the roster per OTC (62 if you include Alex Lewis, whose contract is currently not applied to the cap; also, Cameron Clark counts against the cap and is retiring).

  3. In my use of the calculator, I need to have at least $18 million in cap space at the end of it. Why $18 million? It's a little arbitrary, I'll grant you; the absolute minimum they need is $13.1 million due to their $19.4 million rookie pool, but if the Jets make any trades in the draft (and I suspect I will), that number will change depending on the number and allocation of their picks. I've decided to leave myself an additional $5 million in room to maneuver (not that I think I will need to use all of it). I will recalculate the effective cap space needed at the end of the draft to determine how much the Jets have remaining.

  4. In my use of the calculator, I will be assigning incentives to several contracts. LTBE incentives will be categorized as non-prorated bonuses while NLTBE incentives will not be shown.

  5. In my use of the draft machine, if I make any offseason trades prior to the draft, I will force the trade in the mock draft by attaching assets from the 2025 draft. Obviously, that's not how it works in the NFL, but I can't make player trades with this system.

  6. In my use of the draft machine, I am automatically assuming that (except for specialists who cannot be drafted through TDN) I can sign whichever UDFA I want without having to guarantee any money. Additionally, in lieu of counting them against the cap individually, I will institute a flat $300 thousand charge for the UDFA cap consideration. I am not at all certain of the rules on how UDFAs count against the cap (I believe that only those with a certain amount guaranteed money count in the summer) and I'm probably violating cap rules with this consideration, but I wasn't able to find a satisfactory explanation. I care about making this offseason mock as close to reality as possible, but not that much.

These rules are limiting, yes, but they're meant to be; NFL GMs have to do this themselves, and if I'm going to think like a GM, I need to be shepherded like one. I think. That sentence sounds weird, doesn't it?

So, let's dive right in. With my rules in place, now let me define what I think the Jets' need to focus on this offseason to improve their team. The Jets have major needs in some areas but don't need as much immediate help in others. I'm going to divide the Jets' needs into tiers, grouping by three. I will attempt to cover every position and rank them in these trios.

First Tier Needs

For this first tier, the Jets must use premium assets- whether that be with high draft picks or high spending in free agency- to address these needs. In no particular order, this is what I feel the Jets' three biggest needs are: WR, TE, and EDGE. Beyond acquiring more depth, the Jets need to plan to have a new WR1 next season, even if you think that both Corey Davis and Elijah Moore are capable of carrying that burden for themselves, as both of them struggled with injuries and poor play at varying points in the season. TE is an obvious need for the Jets, having Ryan Griffin currently as their top TE on the roster next season, and Trevon Wesco behind him should Griffin be cut (and Kenny Yeboah should both of them be cut). The Jets need an edge rusher who can either work opposite Carl Lawson or in place of him should Lawson not be ready for the start of the season, and if they decide to move John Franklin-Myers to the outside full-time, they probably would need to get a starting IDL to replace him.

Second Tier Needs

For this second tier, the Jets must address these positions, though it is not imperative that they use any premium assets. In no particular order, this is what I feel the Jets' second tier needs are: IOL, LB, S. The Jets need to find a starting RG to replace Greg Van Roten, who is likely not going to be starting there Week 1 in 2022 after doing so in 2020 and 2021, and they need to find depth at all three IOL spots with all of their top backups now free agents (or retiring, in the case of Cameron Clark). The Jets need to find either a starter at LB beyond Jamien Sherwood who may not be able to play at all in 2022, preferably a long-term option with CJ Mosley a likely cap casualty in 2023 and Quincy Williams a free agent after this season. The same goes for S, as both 2021 Week 1 starters are free agents, and the current starters are Ashtyn Davis and Will Parks (with Jason Pinnock possibly earning a spot over one of those two).

Third Tier Needs

For this third tier, addressing these positions is not a priority when free agency opens, but failing to address these positions outright is probably not a good idea. In no particular order, this is what I feel the Jets' third tier needs are: OT, IDL and CB. The Jets don't need to find someone who can start over Mekhi Becton and George Fant at either tackle spot, but neither man has played a complete season for the Jets, and except for Morgan Moses, the backups the last two seasons have been dreadful. The Jets have two starters at DT in Quinnen Williams and John Franklin-Myers, but the depth behind them at present is Sheldon Rankins and Jonathan Marshall, neither of whom were good last season. The Jets may decide to find a new starting perimeter corner or even a nickel corner if they decide to shift Michael Carter II back to safety, but they can get away with only adding depth if they decide to use their resources elsewhere.

Additional Needs

Outside of the needs described, the Jets should be looking to get better depth or quality camp competition at other positions. In no particular order, the Jets' additional needs are QB, RB/FB, and specialist. The Jets don't need a QB to come in and take the job from Zach Wilson, but they need a competent backup who can play in his stead if he gets injured again or fails to improve from his rookie season. The Jets currently aren't set at RB/FB, but it shouldn't be too difficult to address it. The Jets need to find a new kicker and should be investing in a definite option at punter to compete with Braden Mann in the preseason (and they might need a new starting gunner as well).

Let's Begin

Perhaps I should have made this clear in each offseason outlook; the Jets could not have done everything I listed as my preference this offseason, nor would I have wanted them to do everything I listed there. I do not, for instance, want the Jets to be actively pursuing RB James Connor in free agency for $8.3 million per year. My preference was in how to address each position individually, not the team as a whole. The way I address things will be similar to what I outlined, but it will not be the same things I listed as my preference in each place.

Release/Waive or Restructure

I'll begin with the current 2022 roster and adjust it as is. There are a few cuts I would make for budgetary purposes; even though the Jets have $48.8 in cap space at present, they can use more of it to improve their roster. Here are the roster transactions I would make, listed in order of dead cap hits from highest to lowest.

Waives I would make:

  • RB La'Mical Perine (~$373 thousand dead cap, ~$709 thousand cap saved)
  • OL Cameron Clark (~$345 thousand dead cap, ~$722 thousand cap saved, probably no need to recoup in Clark's retirement)
  • OT Chuma Edoga (~$217 thousand dead cap, $965 thousand saved)
  • FB/TE Trevon Wesco (~$177 thousand dead cap, $965 thousand cap saved)
  • LB Blake Cashman (~$76 thousand dead cap, $895 thousand saved)
  • S Kai Nacua ($0 dead cap, $965 thousand cap saved)
  • C Ross Pierschbacher ($0 dead cap, $895 thousand cap saved)

Releases I would make:

  • DT Sheldon Rankins ($750 thousand dead cap, ~$5.4 million cap saved)
  • TE Ryan Griffin (~$186 thousand dead cap, ~$3 million sap saved)
  • OG Greg Van Roten ($0 dead cap, $3.5 million cap saved)
  • OG Alex Lewis ($0 dead cap, $0 cap saved, would account for $3 million if he decides to play next season)
  • DE Tanzel Smart ($0 dead cap, $895 thousand cap saved)

Half of the waivers I would make are failed Maccagnan draft picks who never amounted to anything and should be removed from the roster. Perine appears to be a failed Douglas pick from the 2020 draft, who was given so little playing time that it is hard to imagine him doing anything of note in 2022. Clark is retiring from football after his spinal injury in the preseason. Kai Nacua is a special teamer with minimal defensive value.

For the releases, these are all fairly easy cuts. Alex Lewis is likely retiring after leaving the team during the preseason, but even if he wants to return to football, it should be with a different team. Sheldon Rankins was ranked 99th by PFF out of 115 IDL in 2021, with awful run defense and only average pass-rushing; that's not at all worth the additional ~$5.4 million to me. I mentioned in my offseason outlook series that I'd like to retain both Griffin and Van Roten if both were willing to agree to pay cuts, but for the purposes of this exercise, I'm going to assume that both men will refuse pay cuts and will both be cut instead.

Releases/Waivers I considered, would consider again after the draft:

  • C Connor McGovern (~$1.3 million dead cap, $9 million saved)
  • CB Justin Hardee Sr. ($0 dead cap, ~$2 million cap saved)
  • RB Austin Walter ($0 dead cap, $895 thousand saved)

I never really thought that McGovern was going anywhere, though I did toy with the idea of replacing him with Bradley Bozeman for a cheaper value if possible. I think that Hardee was bad in 2021, but his contract is low enough that it's not too much of a risk to count on him to play better in 2022, and his upside is very high. Walter is not going to make the final roster in September unless there's a catastrophic, 2021-Ravens-like rash of injuries to the RB room, but he should be retained through camp so that he can work on the practice squad later in the year if needed.

Restructures I would make:

  • LB CJ Mosley (restructure $6 million of 2022 base salary into signing bonus; free $4 million in cap space for 2022)

I don't want to restructure too much of Mosley's contract; there's very little he can do in 2022 that would make his roster status in 2023 tenable, and the restructure I've outlined is going to make it such that cutting him in 2023 will cost $7 million in dead cap (split over two years if done after 6/1). This is just a move made to be more flexible in 2022 cap spending. I didn't really consider any other restructures; if Corey Davis and Carl Lawson don't live up to their contracts in 2022, I'd rather just separate from both easily without having to eat more (and their contracts are much more manageable this season).

After all of the moves I've made to create cap space, the Jets now have just under $70 million to spend with 50 players currently on the roster. Per my own rules, I have a maximum of roughly $50 million to spend to add at least 13 players. I hope that's not too difficult to achieve.

Tenders

There are a few players I'd want to have tendered this offseason. I'm not using the franchise or transition tags on anyone, but some of the non-vested players can be tendered. These tenders fully guarantee their salaries for the 2022 season, so I'm going to be sparing with them. The Jets have several candidates.

Tenders I would make:

  • DB Javelin Guidry ($895 thousand on the ERFA tender)

Javelin Guidry is the easiest (and only) tender for me to make; he's the fastest player on the Jets at present, can play nickel, perimeter or even safety as a backup, and he's at least average on special teams. Aside from him, though, I really wasn't comfortable giving tenders to anyone else.

Tenders I considered:

  • QB Mike White (ROFR tender for ~$2.4 million)
  • WR Jeff Smith ($895 thousand on the ERFA tender)
  • DE Tim Ward ($895 thousand on the ERFA tender)
  • DB Elijah Riley ($895 thousand on the ERFA tender)
  • DL Kyle Phillips (ROFR tender for ~$2.4 million)

Back in my inaugural entry in the offseason outlook series, I said that I would only consider the ROFR tender for Mike White; the ideal world sees him never take another snap for the Jets, and I'm not scared of losing him for a 5th round pick. Now, I'm really not scared of losing him at all with free agency right around the corner; even if he leaves, there are better, more proven options in free agency they could explore to replace White.

I'm also not too keen to tender either Jeff Smith or Tim Ward. Both are strictly backups (possibly even third-team) with poor grades on special teams. Riley would have been tendered most likely, but the news of Lamarcus Joyner's return changed my mind. Kyle Phillips played 7 games each in 2020 and 2021, having okay value as a backup with average value as a special teamer. I'd definitely like to bring him back, but $2.4 million fully guaranteed is a lot to pay for a guy who has been injured for more than half the last two seasons and hasn't shown much to demonstrate his value on Saleh's defense.

Those are all of the tender-eligible players, and the Jets did not use the franchise tag on anyone this year. I think I'm doing a good job following my own rules; I found a new player for under $900 thousand. Now it's time to make some final considerations for the Jets' impending FAs.

Re-Signings

The Jets were a really bad team in 2021, but they still have some good players that they could seek to retain, if for nothing else than camp competition for the next wave of players I approach in free agency. I'll divide into two categories based on contract length, though I might not get much run out of the multi-year contracts. With limited exceptions, the re-signings use the same contract values I used in the offseason outlook series if I spoke about trying to re-sign them. These signings are listed in ascending order by total contract value.

Single-year re-signings I would make:

  • WR Jeff Smith ($895 thousand, $200 thousand guaranteed)
  • DB Elijah Riley ($895 thousand, $300 thousand guaranteed)
  • DL Kyle Phillips ($1 million, $300 thousand guaranteed)
  • K Eddy Pineiro ($1.035 million, no guarantees)
  • FB Nick Bawden ($1.2 million, $300 thousand guaranteed)
  • QB Mike White ($1.5 million, $500 thousand guaranteed)
  • RB Tevin Coleman ($1.5 million, $500 thousand guaranteed, $500 thousand in NLTBE incentives for playing in 14 games; $2 million maximum value, $1.5 million 2022 cap hit)
  • QB Joe Flacco ($1.5 million, $1 million guaranteed, $500 thousand in NLTBE incentives for playing in 4 games, $500 thousand in NLTBE incentives for playing in 8 games, $1 million in NLTBE incentives for playing in 12 games, $1 million in NLTBE incentives for playing in 14 games, $1 million for starting a playoff game, $1 million for starting multiple playoff games; $6.5 million maximum value, $1.5 million 2022 cap hit)
  • I began working on this prior to the Jets re-signing OT Conor McDermott, S Will Parks and S Lamarcus Joyner. I don't have contract figures for them, so I am assuming all three re-signed for one year at the veteran minimum, with Joyner the only one getting any guaranteed money, say maybe $500 thousand).

Multi-year re-signings I would make:

  • RG Laurent Duvernay-Tardif (2 years, $5.5 million, $2 million guaranteed; $2.75 million 2022 cap hit)
  • WR Braxton Berrios (4 years, $21 million, $15 million guaranteed, $1 million in NLTBE incentives for making the Pro Bowl as a returner each year; $25 million maximum value, $5.25 million 2022 cap hit)

A lot of the single-year re-signings I made were on players who only had limited impacts in 2021 and are not getting much in guarantees in the event that they lose camp battles in the summer. Smith projects as a WR5 at best, Phillips missed more than half the season and probably isn't much of a scheme fit in Ulbrich's defense, Bawden only played half the season. Piñeiro should get a chance to compete for the starting kicker job, but his injury risk prevents him from getting any guarantees. The two QBs I've re-signed would likely be easy to retain this offseason even without having to use a tender on White; I incentivized Flacco to come back to earn money based on playing time and performance, two things he hopefully does not need to reach.

I made two multi-year re-signings with relatively little money. Duvernay-Tardiff is a guy who probably can start at RG if needed, but he is not my first choice to be a starter. Berrios is getting a larger contract value than what I described in the outlook on receivers because his market is apparently higher; I'm not going higher than what I've described in either guaranteed money or total value, so if this isn't good enough to retain him, good luck elsewhere.

That's it for current roster restructuring. Heading into the phase where I approach external free agents, there are 58 Jets on the roster at present.

Free Agency

In free agency, I plan on attacking two of three first tier needs, the second-tier needs on defense, and some other needs in the third tier and beyond.

First Tier Need Signings

For the need at WR, I'm going to be rather conservative in free agency. With the tags applied to Chris Godwin and Davante Adams, there aren't currently any FA WR1s I'd like the Jets to sign. The Jets apparently missed the boat on Amari Cooper via trade (I definitely would have made the same trade the Browns did with the Cowboys). Allen Robinson is probably the best available FA WR, but at age 29 coming off an injury-plagued season where he only had 410 yards and 1 TD, I'm not too keen on adding him.

Instead, I'm going to refrain and just say that Berrios fills my need for a depth piece. I'm now going to look at adding a veteran who would likely serve as another backup if he makes the roster over Jeff Smith and whoever else may be added in the draft. My choice for this job- after plucking someone from my WR's 2nd tier in Berrios- is to go with Tre'Quan Smith, currently of the Saints. I covered Smith in that same outlook as a lower-end option from the second tier, so I'd try to sign him to the listed contract of $2 million with $500 thousand guaranteed. (Prior to tweaking the page for AGOP compliance, I targeted Deonte Harris of the Saints first. He was named a First-team All-Pro as a returner in his 2019 rookie season, but his two seasons since have seen him become less effective at returns and more effective on offense. Despite being undersized, he was actually used as a boundary receiver almost twice as often as he was used in the slot. He's a speedy receiver who had some issues with drops (3 on 56 targets), but can definitely be effective with the ball in his hands (43.8 YPG). Assuming he does not get tendered by the Saints, I expect his market to be around $2 million for a single year.)

I'm also going to pluck one name from the veteran minimum pile, not expecting him to make the final 53-man roster but perhaps finding someone who can make the practice squad should he not get a better offer elsewhere. My favorite veteran minimum option is David Moore (who I actually wanted last offseason and I'm glad the Jets didn't give him the $3 million contract I projected for him back then), who bounced around two teams' practice squads last season after failing to make the Panthers' roster out of the preseason (and they released him despite giving him a two-year contract last offseason with $1.25 million guaranteed). I think he should be available as a low-rent free agent for the minimum, and the odds are that he doesn't make the roster after getting only 2 targets in 3 games with the Broncos and Packers last season.

For the need at TE, I regret the loss of all three first-tier free agent options I reviewed in my outlook on tight ends. All three received franchise tags from their current teams, so I'm going to have to look at the second tier in free agency and plan on going hard at a first tier option in the draft. My favorite remaining option in free agency is Tyler Conklin, who I would like to sign for the 2-year, $10 million contract I described for him then. He likely serves as a TE2 for the Jets if I can draft the right TE, but he proved that he can handle a majority of snaps in the Vikings' offense this past season as a receiving option and a below-average blocker. He was also a fairly good special teamer in 2020, though he only got a single special teams snap in 2021, so that might not be a strength with the Jets.

From the veteran minimum pile, I'd like to sign Jacob Hollister, who spent most of 2021 with the Jaguars after failing to make the Bills' roster out of the preseason. He probably would make the roster as TE3 over Kenny Yeboah if I can find a definite TE1 option in the draft, having once been a decent blocker when with Seattle in 2019 and 2020 and having a reasonably decent 2019 season as a receiving option (31.7 YPG that year in 11 games, not so good since then). If I end up drafting multiple TEs or Yeboah shows significant growth in the 2022 camp, though, he might have difficulty making the roster

For the need at the edge, I'd target Randy Gregory and Dorance Armstrong Jr. of the Cowboys, trying the contracts I indicated in my outlook on defensive ends. I'm not looking to add anyone from the veteran minimum pile beyond this, as I'd rather target multiple DL in the draft.

Signings I would make:

  • Canceled for AGOP compliance: WR Deonte Harris (1 year, $2 million, $500 thousand guaranteed)
  • WR Tre'Quan Smith (1 year, $2 million, $500 thousand guaranteed)
  • WR David Moore (1 year, $1.035 million, no guarantees)
  • TE Tyler Conklin (2 years, $10 million, $5 million guaranteed; $5 million 2022 cap hit)
  • TE Jacob Hollister (1 year, $1.035 million, no guarantees)
  • DE Randy Gregory (2 years, $22 million, $11 million guaranteed, $500 thousand in LTBE incentives for 5 sacks each year, $500 thousand in NLTBE incentives for 8 sacks each year, $1 million in NLTBE incentives for 14 games each year; $26 million maximum value, $11.5 million 2022 cap hit)
  • DE Dorance Armstrong Jr. (2 years, $7 million, $2.5 million guaranteed; $3.5 million 2022 cap hit)

Second Tier Need Signings

For the need at IOL, I think the re-signings of Duvernay-Tardiff helps enough prior to the draft, but just to be safe, I'd try to grab Austin Blythe of the Chiefs to the contract I described in my outlook on the interior offensive line.

For the need at LB, I'm going to make one signing from each tier from my outlook on linebackers. I'd want to sign Leighton Vander Esch of the Cowboys and Marcell Harris of the 49ers to the contracts I indicated in the outlook. Harris is essentially a veteran minimum option who might not make the roster anyway, so it might just be Vander Esch that makes the roster from the free agency period.

For the need at S, I'm going to do a few things. First, I'm going to sign Quandre Diggs to a contract similar to the one I listed in my outlook on safeties, with a bit more guaranteed money. I've already re-signed Elijah Riley, so I think that will be the only move I make in free agency, and I will await the draft to make further moves.

Signings I would make:

  • IOL Austin Blythe (1 year, $1.5 million, $750 thousand guaranteed)
  • LB Leighton Vander Esch (2 years, $10 million, $5 million guaranteed; $5 million 2022 cap hit)
  • LB Marcell Harris (1 year, $1.2 million, $150 thousand guaranteed)
  • S Quandre Diggs (3 years, $24 million, $20 million guaranteed, $1 million in LTBE incentives for playing in 14 games each year, $1 million in LTBE incentives for making the Pro Bowl each year; $30 million maximum value, $10 million 2022 cap hit)

Third Tier Need Signings

For the need at OT, my plan in the draft is to address it long term with a starter, but I'd like to make a signing to not put all the pressure on myself to execute the draft with a OLM at 4th overall. I'd like to target Germain Ifedi of the Bears for the contract outlined in my outlook on offensive tackles. After re-signing Conor McDermott, I don't feel the need to add anyone else from the veteran minimum pile.

For the need at IDL, I'd sign Sheldon Richardson of the Vikings to the contract listed in my outlook on the interior defensive line. I didn't cover other options in that outlook in free agency, but I'd like to sign at least one veteran minimum option to round out the room with depth prior to the draft. My favorite minimum wage option is Antwaun Woods of the Colts, who missed half the 2021 season due to injury but was a fine rotational player for the Cowboys the previous three seasons. I wouldn't expect him to make the final 53 to start the season, but he could compete with Jonathan Marshall and whoever gets added in the draft for the final spot at the bottom of the depth chart.

For the need at CB, I'm going to skimp a little bit here for cap reasons, so I won't be signing anyone above the veteran minimum I examined in my outlook on cornerbacks. I'd target Brandon Facyson from the veteran minimum pile (and the first Hokie I've added to the team). I think that that is enough with the component currently here, though I will still come back to the position in the draft.

Signings I would make:

  • RG/RT Germain Ifedi (1 year, $3.5 million, $3 million guaranteed)
  • DL Sheldon Richardson (1 year, $2.5 million, $2.5 million guaranteed)
  • DT Antwaun Woods (1 year, $1.035 million, no guarantees)
  • CB Brandon Facyson (1 year, $1.035 million, no guarantees)

Additional Needs Signings

I've already re-signed two QBs in Mike White and Joe Flacco and don't plan on adding any more until the draft is at (or near) its end. I'm also not planning on adding any other RBs to the Jets in free agency after re-signing Tevin Coleman, so I'll wait until the draft for any additions. For the needs at specialist, I will approach one guy per position in free agency. Wil Lutz has not been cut by the Saints at this time (and I still don't know if I can trade for him), so I'll try Michael Badgley from the Colts for kicker and Thomas Morstead from the Falcons for punter.

Signings I would make:

  • K Michael Badgley (1 year, $1.1 million, $50 thousand guaranteed)
  • P Thomas Morstead (1 year, $1.12 million, no guarantees)

This concludes my free agency period, with the Jets currently having 78 players on the roster and having just under $20.8 per OTC's salary cap table. Honestly, I don't think this number is accurate (I think I'm actually at $7 million by manually applying the cap hits in a standard calculator), so I'm going to have to cross out DE Randy Gregory, DT Antwaun Woods and LB Leighton Vander Esch to get back to above my self-imposed $18 million minimum (I believe that I'm at $19.51 million). I apologize if my math is incorrect, but I'm trying to keep this realistic. I've left their additions elsewhere on this post but put a line through them; if my math is incorrect and the Jets actually would have enough cap space to afford them with my self-imposed mandate in mind, I'd still include them.

Trades

Unfortunately, I didn't leave myself much room to make a trade for anyone with a large cap hit. That eliminates my prior proposed trade for WR Brandin Cooks of the Texans, and WR Calvin Ridley took himself out of consideration with his yearlong suspension. So, in trying to find a WR1, I'm going to make a move to try to acquire DK Metcalf from Seattle.

The Seahawks did the unthinkable earlier this week when it traded QB Russell Wilson to the Broncos, signifying the complete end of their decade run of making the playoffs nearly every year. If I were them, I'd be committing fully to the rebuild (and they seem to be doing that) by trying to get future value from their current crop of players. I can't make a trade for Tyler Lockett with my current cap space, but I can try to make one for Metcalf. This is going to be different from what I laid out in my outlook on receivers; when I mocked up that trade, I made it under the assumption that Seattle still wanted to be a playoff team in 2022. I was prepared to give up the 4th overall pick then because part of the calculus was that Seattle didn't have one after giving it up for Jamal Adams. I think I can skate by without having to commit it in this trade.

So, here is my new proposed trade for DK Metcalf.

NYJ Receives

  • WR DK Metcalf
  • SEA 4th round pick (via NYJ i.e., from the Jamal Adams trade)

SEA Receives
  • WR Denzel Mims
  • NYJ 1st round pick (via SEA i.e., from the Jamal Adams trade)

In this trade, the two sides exchange back their remaining picks from the trade that helped kill the Seahawks' dynasty and swap receivers. Metcalf joins a team in need of a true WR1 (a role he has been able to fill each of the last two seasons) that can give him an extension immediately (I'm still projecting the Jets would give him the same extension from the outlook) and put him atop the depth chart. The Jets assume a roughly $4 million cap hit from Metcalf while clearing about $726 thousand from Mims, who goes to Seattle to hopefully serve as a starting receiver in a new environment with a coaching staff that might better value his skill set. Mims wouldn't have the established franchise QB throwing him the ball (unless they trade for Deshaun Watson), but I think he needs the change of scenery to revitalize his career, and he has an extra year on his current contract that the Seahawks could hopefully use to develop him into a reliable receiver that he never turned out to be with the Jets.

I need to clear some more cap space to get back to my imposed minimum of $18 million, so I'm going to cross out the signings of David Moore and Germain Ifedi. Again, if my math is incorrect, ignore the cross outs (I think I would still need to cut Ifedi even if my math was correct to stay above the $18 million threshold); I simply can't trust the table without confirming that it's accurate because it's not translating the numbers I believe are correct.

At the end of April, the Jets should have 77 players on the roster with about $19.7 million in cap space. If I make any further cuts, it will mostly be to guys on future contracts.

Draft

I will be using The Draft Network's mock draft machine to perform my mock draft. This system isn't perfect, obviously, but I pay for its benefits, so I'm going to be using it. This system doesn't let me draft specialists, it doesn't allow teams to make trades amongst themselves without my intervention, its trade logic isn't always great, and I don't fully agree with the prospect rankings. To rectify the first flaw, I'm just going to assume that no specialists get drafted this year (I shouldn't; I think at least one specialist of each kind will get drafted, but I can't do anything about it). I can't do anything about the second flaw either, but for the third flaw, I will do my best to only negotiate realistic trades and will justify any I make. For the final listed flaw, I will try to work to the draft the way I think it will play out in a few weeks, even if the CPU won't work to those rules.

I only made one pre-draft trade. To force this trade, I attached the Jets' 2025 7th round pick. So, at the start of the draft, I will have the 4th overall pick, as well as picks at 35, 38, 69, 107, 109, 115, 145 and 162 (the picks after 69 are not finalized). If I don't make other trades, I'd need at least $9.5 million in cap space to sign all of my draft picks.

Pick 4: Jets Select Kayvon Thibodeaux, EDGE, Oregon

My rationale: After the top three picks were Hutchinson (definitely realistic), Hamilton (I guess it could happen) and Neal (definitely realistic) in that order, the choice came down to Ikem Ekwonu and Kayvon Thibodeaux. I went with Thibodeaux here because I felt that I could get by with what I currently have at RG with Laurent Duvernay-Tardif and Austin Blythe competing for the starting job, and I could still go after another option later in the draft. Thibodeaux is a high-end talent who has had some criticisms of motivation leveled his way (and he's done very little to dissuade teams of that notion with his awkward combine departure), and he though he might not be a true scheme fit the way he currently is, I'm not certain I'd be willing to pass on it right now. If his pro day workout goes poorly, I might move off this pick, but making the mock offseason right now, I prefer to go with the high-end edge rusher over the high-end tackle who would not have a definite position in New York.

Guys I passed on: Ikem Ekwonu, OT, NC State

Pick 10: Seahawks Select David Ojabo, EDGE, Michigan.

Pick 35: Jets Select Kenyon Green, OL, Texas A&M

My rationale: I wasn't expecting to see Green fall this far (and I don't think he will), but I can't pass on the opportunity to add him to the Jets' OL. He would be an immediate starting RG for the Jets who could either move out to RT (or even LT) in 2023 or stick at RG long term. He is an excellent zone blocker and dominant run-blocker in the SEC whose PFF college grades as a pass-blocker might be even higher at he been left to develop at a single spot on the OL. He would serve as the premium insurance option against Mekhi Becton and George Fant, who have both had spotty injury histories to put it mildly.

Guys I passed on: Christian Harris, LB, Alabama; Trey McBride, TE, Colorado State; Jaquan Brisker, S, Penn State

Pick 38 (via CAR): Jets Select Trey McBride, TE, Colorado State

My rationale: The Giants quickly took Harris at pick 36, so they kind of made this pick a bit easier for me and let me take McBride with my only regret being that I would miss out on Brisker. Though TDN does not rank any tight ends in the top 50, it's hard for me to imagine that the draft shakes out with no TEs going in that range, so I decided to snag McBride here. He was an excellent receiving option with a keen sense of where to find seams in coverage and a great catch radius. There are some questions about his abilities as a blocker due to him playing in a conference typically lacking in NFL-caliber defenders, but he was solid as a blocker at the Senior Bowl and definitely passed the test against the pads at the combine. He would serve as the Jets' starting tight end in front of Conklin, and you would probably see him working in line with Conklin working either behind or on his outside shoulder in multiple tight end packages.

Guys I passed on: Jaquan Brisker, S, Penn State; Roger McReary, CB, Auburn

Jets Trade Pick 69 to Chiefs for Pick 94 and Pick 102

My rationale: I can understand this trade, sort of, from the Chiefs' perspective. They decided that their team needs more quality over quantity and traded their two late 3rd round picks for the Jets' early 3rd round pick. They really wanted to draft WR Calvin Austin III of Memphis, so I went ahead and let them in exchange for two 3rds. There wasn't anyone in this range I was dying to have after IDL Travis Jones went a few picks before this one.

Guys I passed on: Darrian Beavers, LB, Cincinnati; Phidarian Mathis, IDL, Alabama; Jeremy Ruckert, TE, Ohio State; Alontae Taylor, CB, Tennessee; Rasheed Walker, OT, Penn State

Pick 94 (via KC): Jets Select Quay Walker, LB, Georgia

My rationale: I very nearly managed to get CB Alontae Taylor of Tennessee or IOL Cole Strange of Chattanooga, but they went eight picks and one pick ahead of me respectively. Instead, I ended up with Quay Walker, an athletic linebacker who might be both the second guy named Walker and the second linebacker taken from Georgia. He's a hard-hitting and sure-tackling defender who would likely work at SAM on the Jets' defense on early downs. PFF didn't like his pass coverage all that much (though he worked on a defense with so many ultra talents that somebody had to take the blame for pass coverage), but proper coaching can help him unlock his natural athleticism and translate it into better coverage.

Guys I passed on: Myjai Sanders, EDGE, Cincinnati; Tyreke Smith, EDGE, Ohio State

Jets Trade Pick 102 (via CAR) to Colts for Pick 120 and Pick 216

My rationale: I have three more picks in the next 13 slots and decided that I could afford to wait 6 more to grab the next guy I want. The Lions unfortunately took DL Tyreke Smith of Ohio State, and EDGE Myjai Sanders of Cincinnati isn't quite what I'm looking for after drafting Thibodeaux in the first round (he's a tad undersized for the 4-3 system without Thibodeaux's talent levels, and his stock has fallen a bit since the Senior Bowl after not making much of an impact).

Guys I passed on: Myjai Sanders, EDGE, Cincinnati; Brian Robinson Jr., RB, Alabama; Coby Bryant, CB, Cincinnati

Pick 107 (via SEA from NYJ): Jets Select Alec Pierce, WR, Cincinnati

My rationale: I have a definite starting component of DK Metcalf, Corey Davis and Elijah Moore at WR (with Braxton Berrios as a slot option and gadget behind them), but I need this room to be deeper, especially if Davis does not rebound from his bad 2021 season and earn his non-guaranteed 2023 salary. Enter Alec Pierce, a sizable receiver who ran a 4.41 at the combine and could be a starting receiving option in the Jets' offense after his rookie season if Davis is released in 2023. He was decent on contested catches, and his speed enables him to be trusted on go routes with ability to make plays downfield. His route-running is good enough for him to get early separation and make catches, though he wasn't often tested against NFL cornerback and safety prospects; he could be a definite mismatch in the slot at worst in the mold of a slot-aligned TE in a spread set.

Guys I passed on: Brian Robinson Jr., RB, Alabama; Brandon Smith, LB, Penn State; Coby Bryant, CB, Cincinnati

Pick 109 (via MIN): Jets Select Coby Bryant, CB, Cincinnati

My rationale: Back-to-back picks from Cincinnati, Bryant is a guy who might not become a true CB1 for the Jets but could still turn into a solid starting corner (would be highest-drafted corner for the Jets since Darrelle Revis, by the way). He could work on the boundary or in the slot, and would probably be a starter at either location over the guys I have on the roster at this point. He doesn't have the speed to play press-man against deep threats, but he plays very well in zone coverage and could be an asset as a run-defender on the outside.

Guys I passed on: Brian Robinson Jr., RB, Alabama; Brandon Smith, LB, Penn State; Isaiah Thomas, DL, Oklahoma

Jets Trade Pick 115 and Pick 216 to the Eagles for Pick 122 and Pick 165

My rationale: I decided that with another pick at 120, I could afford to slide back a few places in exchange for upgrading my late 6th to a mid 5th. The Eagles really wanted to draft IDL Jermayne Lole of Arizona State and I was willing to let him go.

Guys I passed on: Brian Robinson Jr., RB, Alabama; Brandon Smith, LB, Penn State, Isaiah Thomas, DL, Oklahoma.

Pick 120 (via IND): Jets Select Isaiah Thomas, DL, Oklahoma

My rationale: I might have finally taken Brandon Smith here, but he went to the Ravens at pick 117. Instead, I'll be taking Thomas here, a guy who I covered briefly in my outlook on defensive ends as a base end who could end up stacking on mass to work on the interior for some snaps. I'm taking him earlier than I projected in that outlook after a decent Senior Bowl performance and combine showing (he didn't do the bench press, though he ran a 4.70 40 time). He probably isn't ever going to become a full-time starter for the Jets, but he should round out as quality depth and perhaps even a core special teamer.

Guys I passed on: Brian Robinson Jr., RB, Alabama; Alec Lindstrom, IOL, Boston College; Hasan Haskins, RB, Michigan

Pick 122 (via PHI): Jets Select Hassan Haskins, RB, Michigan

My rationale: Haskins has seen his stock drop a bit after opting out of the Senior Bowl with an ankle injury and not participating in most of the drills at the combine, but I expect he will have the opportunity to boost it back up to the middle of the 4th round at the latest at his school's pro day. One of the drills he did participate in at the combine, though, was the bench press, where he had the most reps among runningbacks with 27 (and that's with his ankle injury). I think he'd be an excellent short-yardage, between-the-tackles back to pair with Michael Carter for the long term.

Guys I passed on: Brian Robinson Jr., RB, Alabama; Alec Lindstrom, IOL, Boston College; Max Mitchell, OT, Louisiana

Pick 145: Jets Select Eyioma Uwazurike, DL, Iowa State

My rationale: I honestly forgot about OT Max Mitchell of Louisiana until my last pick (and I don't think he's going to fall as far as he did to 134), but I regret missing him. After him, though, my biggest need is at IDL; enter Uwazurike, a player who played as an edge for nearly a third of his time on the field in 2021 but would move just about exclusively to the interior. I didn't scout him in my outlook on the interior defensive line, but I can see that PFF found him to be a consistent force in 2021 against teams with NFL prospects on OLs like Northern Iowa, Iowa, Clemson, West Virginia and TCU. He would become a long-term replacement for Folorunso Fatukasi, possibly working as an immediate DT3 ahead of Sheldon Richardson.

Guys I passed on: Bryan Cook, S, Cincinnati; Tyrese Robinson, IOL, Oklahoma

Pick 162 (via PIT): Jets Select Bryan Cook, S, Cincinnati

My rationale: Completing the trifecta of Bearcats, the Jets bring in Bryan Cook, who would either serve as a backup FS behind Quandre Diggs and get some run in the Jets two-high packages or even be a starting SS. I will assume the former for his rookie season, though given the 2021 injuries to the two presumptive starters, he could be a first man up should either be slow to recover their prior form in the preseason. I don't think Cook will actually fall this far, but perhaps he slips because teams shy away from his prior work at Howard and his limited role prior to 2021.

Guys I passed on: Thayer Munford, OL, Ohio State; Yusuf Corker, S, Kentucky; Romeo Doubs, WR, Nevada

Pick 165 (via PHI): Jets Select Thayer Munford, OL, Ohio State

My rationale: Munford did not test well at the combine, ranking among the lowest OLM in every drill he participated in, and he skipped the bench press. Maybe he rebounds at Ohio State's pro day, but these were not good compared to the rest of his class, and his stock has suffered to a point where he might not be able to recover. Still, I'm willing to take a chance on him as a long-term backup guard and even tackle should he find some run at LT (where he spent most of his collegiate career anyway).

Guys I passed on: Yusuf Corker, S, Kentucky; Romeo Doubs, WR, Nevada; Charlie Kolar, TE, Iowa State

UDFA Signings

I am now out of picks after spending 11 of them in the first five rounds. I'd like to sign some UDFAs from this class who would have a chance to make the roster and/or practice squad.

The only priority UDFA signing I would make- guaranteeing more than $100 thousand of his 2022 salary- is OL Ben Petrula of Boston College, a local product who has experience at three different positions in college.

Other UDFA signings I will make are QB Levi Lewis of Louisiana, RB Jarod "Snoop" Conner of Ole Miss, RB Master Teague of Ohio State, WR/TE Emeka Emezie of NC State, OT George Moore of Oregon, OT Aaron Frost of Nevada, C Brock Hoffman of Virginia Tech (only the second Hokie I've included), LB Darien Butler of Arizona State, LB Olakunle Fatukasi of Rutgers (yes, he is the brother of Folorunso), DB Brandon Sebastian of Boston College, S Joey Blount of Virginia, PK Cameron Dicker of Texas.

That makes 24 draftees and UDFA signings. I need to clear 13 roster spots to get these guys on the 90-man roster. I will trim from the future contract list (and pull one from the active roster). These guys, for the most part, aren't attributed to the cap anyway, so I'm not including their cap savings.

Releases/Waives I would make following the draft:

  • PK Matt Ammendola
  • RB Austin Walter
  • EDGE Jabari Zuniga
  • TE Brandon Dillon
  • DE Hamilcar Rashed Jr.
  • WR Rodney Adams
  • WR Tarik Black
  • OL Grant Hermanns
  • CB Rachaad Wildgoose
  • S Javonte Moffatt
  • DE Bradley Anae
  • LB Javin White
  • G Dru Samia

There's nobody in this pile I'd truly miss. Ammendola, Walter and Zuniga aren't likely to make the roster anyway. Black only got playing time in January because Jets WRs kept getting injured and Mims couldn't be trusted to play. Everyone else projects as a third-stringer at best.

So, I now have a 90-man roster. If I include the flat $300 thousand charge for the rookies I signed from UDFA, the effective cap space needed for this rookie class is just under $9.98 million. Assuming my math is correct, the Jets would have $9.72 million left to spend after the draft picks have all signed their rookie contracts, giving them ample room to sign people late if someone gets released late like CB Steven Nelson did in 2021. Maybe I could even make a trade for someone using 2023 assets to make a post-6/1 trade to further bolster some positions; nobody sticks out right now, but I'd have the cap flexibility to make such a move should they become necessary.

So, here is what a significant portion of the 90-man roster would look like put into a presumptive positional chart (no injuries have been accounted for in this order).

* indicates player is repeated a multiple positions

QB

  1. Zach Wilson
  2. Joe Flacco
  3. Mike White
  4. Levi Lewis
RB
  1. Michael Carter
  2. Hassan Haskins
  3. Tevin Coleman
  4. Ty Johnson
  5. Jarod "Snoop" Conner
  6. Master Teague
FB
  1. Nick Bawden
WR
  1. DK Metcalf
  2. Corey Davis
  3. Elijah Moore
  4. Alec Pierce
  5. Braxton Berrios
  6. Deonte Harris
  7. Jeff Smith
  8. DJ Montgomery
  9. Emeka Emezie*
TE
  1. Trey McBride
  2. Tyler Conklin
  3. Jacob Hollister
  4. Kenny Yeboah
  5. Lawrence Cager
  6. Emeka Emezie*
OT
  1. George Fant
  2. Mekhi Becton
  3. Kenyon Green*
  4. Thayer Munford*
  5. Conor McDermott
  6. George Moore
  7. Aaron Frost
  8. Ben Petrula*
IOL
  1. Connor McGovern
  2. Alijah Vera-Tucker
  3. Kenyon Green*
  4. Laurent Duvernay-Tardif
  5. Austin Blythe
  6. Thayer Munford*
  7. Brock Hoffman
  8. Ben Petrula*
IDL
  1. Quinnen Williams
  2. John Franklin-Myers*
  3. Sheldon Richardson
  4. Eyioma Uwazurike
  5. Jonathan Marshall
  6. Isaiah Thomas*
  7. Kyle Phillips*
DE
  1. Kayvon Thibodeaux
  2. Carl Lawson
  3. Dorance Armstrong
  4. John Franklin-Myers*
  5. Isaiah Thomas*
  6. Bryce Huff
LB
  1. CJ Mosley
  2. Quincy Williams
  3. Quay Walker
  4. Jamien Sherwood
  5. Del'Shawn Phillips
  6. Hamsah Nasirildeen*
  7. Darien Butler
  8. Olakunle Fatukasi
CB
  1. Bryce Hall
  2. Coby Bryant
  3. Brandin Echols
  4. Michael Carter II
  5. Brandon Facyson
  6. Javelin Guidry
  7. Jason Pinnock*
  8. Justin Hardee Sr.
  9. Isaiah Dunn
  10. Brandon Sebastian*
S
  1. Quandre Diggs
  2. Lamarcus Joyner
  3. Ashtyn Davis
  4. Bryan Cook
  5. Elijah Riley
  6. Will Parks
  7. Jason Pinnock*
  8. Zane Lewis
  9. Hamsah Nasirildeen*
  10. Brandon Sebastian*
  11. Joey Blount
PK
  1. Michael Badgley
  2. Eddy Pineiro
  3. Cameron Dicker
P
  1. Braden Mann
  2. Thomas Morstead

I didn't provide the full 90 men here, but I've included a lot of people. Assuming no injuries in preseason or PUP placements to begin the season (which very well could be the case for both Carl Lawson and Jamien Sherwood coming off Achilles tears), I wouldn't expect any UDFAs to make the roster out of hand except for Ben Petrula, nor would I expect Thomas Morstead, Eddy Pineiro, Zane Lewis, Will Parks, Isaiah Dunn, Brandon Facyson, Hamsah Nasirildeen, Bryce Huff, Ty Johnson, Kyle Phillips, Kenny Yeboah, Jeff Smith or DJ Montgomery to be on the 53-man roster to start the season, though I'd hope to get them all back on the practice squad if possible. I wouldn't expect Nick Bawden to make the final 53 either and hope that I could get him back on the practice squad, but I'd hope that the TEs on the roster could have gotten some work in the backfield in preparation for this to happen.

How Did I Do?

I think I did a good job getting a starting component at each position, though I didn't get as much depth as I wanted to get at some positions (namely OT and LB). With the remaining cash on hand, I'd try to go after the best remaining free agents at those positions.

So, barring any other injuries or PUP placements, this is what I think the final 53-man would look like (listed in order on depth chart from highest to lowest; bold indicates starters; some receivers and linemen would backup multiple positions but are only listed at one).

QB: Zach Wilson, Joe Flacco, Mike White

RB: Michael Carter, Hassan Haskins, Tevin Coleman

WR (X): DK Metcalf, Alec Pierce

WR (Y): Elijah Moore, Braxton Berrios

WR (Z): Corey Davis, Deonte Harris

TE: Trey McBride, Tyler Conklin, Jacob Hollister

LT: George Fant, Conor McDermott

LG: Alijah Vera-Tucker, Thayer Munford

C: Connor McGovern, Austin Blythe

RG: Kenyon Green, Laurent Duvernay-Tardif

RT: Mekhi Becton, Ben Petrula

LDE: Carl Lawson, Dorance Armstrong Jr.

LDT: Quinnen Williams, Sheldon Richardson, Jonathan Marshall

RDT: John Franklin-Myers, Eyioma Uwazurike

RDE: Kayvon Thibodeaux, Isaiah Thomas

WLB: Quay Walker

MLB: CJ Mosley, Jamien Sherwood

SLB: Quincy Williams, Del'Shawn Phillips

LCB: Coby Bryant, Brandin Echols, Jason Pinnock

RCB: Bryce Hall, Javelin Guidry

NCB: Michael Carter II

FS: Quandre Diggs, Bryan Cook, Elijah Riley

SS: Lamarcus Joyner, Ashtyn Davis

LS: Thomas Hennessey

P: Braden Mann

PK: Michael Badgley

Again, not quite happy with my depth at OT and LB, but I think I did enough to address each position to find adequate starters at all spots. If it came down to it, I think I'd sooner push Thayer Munford out to LT and Kenyon Green out to RT than use the two guys listed as backups at those positions. For LB, I didn't leave myself much wiggle room, so the Jets might be stuck with a base nickel package a lot in 2022 like they had in 2021 when injuries ravaged their LB unit; just keep using different nickel package substitutions depending on the down and distance to keep guys fresh.

What do you think? What did I get wrong that should condemn me to watch what the Jets actually flub this offseason (I'm kidding... please...)?

Thanks for reading my mock offseason, putting up with my hand mathematics and following along with my offseason outlook, if you've done any of that stuff. If you haven't done that stuff yet, kindly do all of it and then get back to me with your own 10,000 word essay on what you think the Jets should be doing this offseason in painstaking detail. No, I'm afraid I'm going to have to insist. Get to it, moocher; I demand your best effort.

Thanks again.

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