Jets open as 9.5 point underdogs vs Bills

The New York Jets are coming off a heartbreaking loss to the Minnesota Vikings on Sunday. Mike White had an up and down day, throwing for 369 yards and scoring a touchdown on a quarterback sneak, but also coming up short at the 1 yard line on what could have been the game winning drive and throwing two interceptions on the day. The Jets defense got off to a slow start for the second consecutive week. and this time it cost the Jets, yielding 20 points in the first half as the Jets fell behind by 17 points before putting together a furious comeback that fell just short. Garrett Wilson had another big day with 162 receiving yards, but it was all for naught. The loss to the Vikings brought the Jets’ record for the 2022 NFL season to 7-5 and prevented the Jets from playing for the AFC East lead against Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills next Sunday. Now the Jets try to regroup as they go on the road to take on the Bills.

The 9.5 point spread may seem fairly large, but it represents a big gain in respect for the Jets in a short period of time. Bettors are beginning to believe in this team. Just five weeks ago the Jets opened as 12.5 point underdogs at home. With home field advantage accounting for about 3 points on the spread, that 12.5 point spread at home in Week 9 corresponded to a 15.5 point spread on a neutral field, or an 18.5 point spread on the road. So in five short weeks the Jets have gained 9 points of respect against the Bills.

The 9-3 Buffalo Bills come into this game alone atop the AFC East and tied with the Kansas City Chiefs for the best record in the AFC. The Bills, despite their gaudy record, have come back to earth a bit since the last time the Jets faced them. At that time the Bills were 6-1, their only loss coming by two points at the hands of the Miami Dolphins. The Jets beat the Bills in East Rutherford in Week 9 and the Bills lost their next game as well, then played tight, one score games in wins over the lowly Cleveland Browns and Detroit Lions, before looking great for the first time in over a month in a dominant win over the New England Patriots last week. The Bills’ aura of near invincibility has been stripped away. They are still an excellent team with a superstar quarterback in Josh Allen, but not necessarily the best team in the NFL anymore. The Bills are great, but beatable. It remains to be seen whether the Jets are up to the task on the road in Buffalo.

For the Jets to win they’ll need Mike White to play mistake free football, they’ll need the running game to be effective, and they’ll need some good fortune in the form of a turnover or two in their favor. It won’t be easy, but it isn’t an impossible dream.

According to DraftKings Sportsbook the Jets open as 9.5 point underdogs against the Bills on Sunday. I think that’s fair. The Bills should be large favorites at home. They’ve earned it. If the Jets want to narrow that gap they’ll have to sweep the Bills to do it.

Can the Jets win this game? Sure. Stranger things have happened. But it’s not the way to bet. The Bills have won 8 of their last 9 home games, and the Bills have beaten the Jets 4 of the last 5 games between the two teams. The Bills are simply the better team right now. As much as I hate to do it, I’m picking against the Jets in this game, while hoping the Jets prove me wrong.

The moneyline odds are New York Jets +360/Bufalo Bills -450.

The Over/Under for the game is 44.

What do you think Jets fans? Will the Jets beat the odds in this game?