Comparing Darnold and #2 Pick Trade Draft Hauls


JD's most important question to resolve this year is whether to keep Darnold as QB and trade #2 pick, or instead use the the #2 pick for Wilson or Fields. Of course, JD could keep Darnold and make the #2 pick, say Chase or Sewell, but I have to believe that JD will think that the trade haul for the #2 is worth more than either of these non-qb players in isolation.

Let's assume trade value for Darnold is a low first rounder. I think this is higher than consensus but let's give Sam the benefit of the doubt. Trade value for the # 2 pick is likely to be at least three picks whose aggregate value, imo, will be at least double to triple the value of the Darnold trade haul, when measured on the NFL trade value chart. So if you compare apples to apples, you would advise JD to keep Darnold and trade the #2 pick, not because of Darnold's value but because of the #2 pick's value, right?

You would essentially be buying an option, using an investment analogy, that the new coaching staff can improve Darnold once the new offensive system is installed...a system that seems much more Darnold-friendly than Gase's system (if it was a system).

Looked another way, the downside of Wilson or Fields failing is the opportunity cost of not having the #2 pick's trade value play (with that cost offset by the value of Darnold's trade value play)...which can be a very high net opportunity cost. The downside of Darnold not being "reformed" is the opportunity cost of not having Wilson or Fields as your future qb (offset by the value of the #2 pick's trade play). This is likely to be a much lesser opportunity cost, when you discount the probablities that Wilson or Fields will become franchise qbs.

If you look at this draft situation like an investor, the choice is keep Darnold and trade the #2 pick.

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