According to DraftKings Sportsbook, the New York Jets are 13.5 point home underdogs against the Buffalo Bills in East Rutherford, New Jersey on Sunday. That’s a very big spread against a home team, but the Bills feature the best defense in the NFL, an excellent young quarterback in Josh Allen, and a host of talented weapons on offense. This is a very tough matchup for the Jets. I’ll say the Jets lose another one.
Last week I bounced back a bit with my picks after a horrific performance the week before. I went 8-5, including 2-0 in my upset specials. That brings my record for the year to 25-14, and 6-2 on my upset specials.
Here are my picks for the rest of the NFL matchups this week. These picks are just a simple who wins the game deal. Odds do not factor in. DISCLAIMER: This is just for fun. I make no claims to actually being any good at this. Anyone who chooses to bet according to my picks will likely prove the old maxim, a fool and his money are soon parted.
SUNDAY 1 PM GAMES
Atlanta Falcons at Dallas Cowboys. The Cowboys got throttled last week by a very good Broncos defense. It’s the first time all year that anyone dominated the Dallas offense. Don’t expect the mediocre Falcons defense to make it two weeks in a row. Cowboys over the Falcons.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Washington Football Team. Huge mismatch here. The Buccaneers are legitimate Super Bowl contenders with a prolific offense. The Football Team is a last place team with a horrific defense. Home field won’t be nearly enough to narrow the gap. Buccaneers over the Football Team.
Detroit Lions at Pittsburgh Steelers. The Lions will probably win a game at some point this year. With Ben Roethlisberger out and Mason Rudolph in at quarterback for the Steelers, now sems like as good a time as any. Lions over the Steelers in an upset special.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts. The Jaguars had a huge upset win over the Buffalo Bills last week. They did it while scoring just 9 points. Teams like the Jaguars don’t often put together back to back upset wins, and this offensively challenged team, which has scored just 16 points in the last two games, is unlikely to hold the Colts offense to single digits. Colts over the Jaguars.
New Orleans Saints at Tennessee Titans. The Titans offense relies on running the ball. All World running back Derrick Henry is out with an injury. The Saints have the best run defense in the NFL, and have given up more than 90 yards rushing just once this year. This matchup was tailor made for the Saints. Saints over the Titans in an upset special.
Cleveland Browns at New England Patriots. Both these teams rely on a ball control offense. The Browns have the better running game and the better defense. Sounds like a formula for victory to me. Browns over the Patriots in an upset special.
SUNDAY LATE AFTERNOON GAMES
Carolina Panthers at Arizona Cardinals. The Cardinals are arguably the best team in the NFL. The Panthers are starting somebody named P.J. Walker at quarterback. Walker has a career passer rating of 42. Sounds like a rout to me. Cardinals over the Panthers.
Minnesota Vikings at Los Angeles Chargers. The Chargers have struggled lately after getting off to a hot start. The Vikings have been wildly erratic, sometimes looking great, other times looking terrible. This game looks close on paper. I’ll go with the home team with the better quarterback. Chargers over the Vikings.
Seattle Seahawks at Green Bay Packers. The Seahawks get Russell Wilson back, though it’s not clear if he’s 100% healthy. The Packers get Aaron Rodgers back after missing a week with Covid-19. Two future Hall of Fame quarterbacks going at it should be a treat for football fans. For Wilson it will be an anti-climactic return. Packers are undefeated at home this year. It stays that way for at least one more week. Packers over the Seahawks in what could be the best game of the week.
Philadelphia Eagles at Denver Broncos. The Eagles have picked up all three of their wins on the road this year. The Broncos have just two home wins this year. The Eagles have been running the ball extremely well of late. The Broncos lose when they can’t stop the run. Eagles over the Broncos in an upset special.
SUNDAY NIGHT GAME
Kansas City Chiefs at Las Vegas Raiders. The Chiefs have been a bad football team the last four or five games. They can’t run the ball, they turn the ball over at an alarming rate, and Patrick Mahomes has been in a funk. The Raiders haven’t faced a good team in more than a month, and haven’t beaten a good team since they started the season with back to back wins over the Ravens and Steelers. This is a tough one to call. I’ll go with the team that has done a much better job taking care of the football, at home. Raiders over the Chiefs in an upset special.
MONDAY NIGHT GAME
Los Angeles Rams at San Francisco 49ers. The Rams lost Robert Woods for the season on Friday, right after they picked up Odell Beckham Jr. Who knows what that will do to their passing game? Overall the Rams are one of the best teams in the NFL. The 49ers have lost four of their last five games. Their only wins all year have come against the Lions, Eagles and Bears (oh my!) Lions and Eagles and Bears (oh my!). The Rams aren’t Lions or Eagles or Bears (oh my!) Rams over the 49ers.