FanPost

2021 Salary Cap - Free Agent Opportunities

Due to the financial effects of Covid-19 against the NFL, a handful of teams including the Jets and Jaguars, will have some unique opportunities this offseason with free agency. With the expected reduction in salary cap to $175 million, the Jets are one of only 11 teams with more than $20 million in available cap space without having to make any cuts. Standing currently at $62.9 million in salary cap room, the Jets are 2nd only to the Jags at $77.3 million. At the other end of the spectrum, teams like the Saints at -$99.8 million and the Eagles at -$74 million are going to have to cut\renegotiate\retire numerous high salaried players just to get to the point where they have operational funds for next season. The market is going to be flooded with some very good players and due to supply and demand, heavy supply means lower than normal salary numbers. I would expect that we will see quite a few players taking less money on a 1-year deal in the hopes that the cap increases next year so they can cash back in.

Opportunity #1: 2021 UFAs (pre-cuts) – Over the past few weeks (or even months), people on this site (including me) have speculated that the Jets will try and sign one of the top free agent WRs with names like Allen Robinson, Kenny Golladay, Corey Davis, and Chris Godwin as the names being thrown out there. Price tags equaling Keenan Allen’s deal from 2020, 4 yrs $80 million, have been discussed. That deal was signed with a $198.2 million dollar salary cap or a nearly 12% higher number than what teams will be working with in 2021. Combine this with the fact that most teams in the NFL will be working just to get under the cap + operations cost for 2021 means there will be less bidders on the market. With that said, it is feasible that the 2021 stud free agents will have to swallow that decrease, at least for a year. So instead of a 4 yr $80 million dollar deal for Robinson or Golladay, it is feasible that they would have to take a 1yr deal at $17.6 million, betting that things get better next year.

Opportunity #2: 2021 Franchise Tags – Another potential opportunity revolves around the 2021 franchise tags. In previous years, teams were able to head off aggressive pursuers of their own players (i.e. Joe Thuney) by placing franchise tags on them. Since the franchise tag takes into account the salaries of players over the past 5 years, a 12% downturn in cap will make franchise tags less appealing to NFL teams. In 2020, Joe Thuney played for the Patriots after signing his tagged deal worth $14.78 million. If the Patriots want to tag him again in 2021, it will cost them a whopping $17.73 million, making it very doubtful that they will take so much of their cap and use it on a guard. The Patriots do have nearly $60 million in cap space (4th in the league), but they are facing a pretty major upcoming rebuild.

Opportunity #3: 2021 Cap Casualties – As I mentioned earlier, the market is going to be flooded with the fact that so many teams are going to need to make cuts\restructures to get under the cap and have the operating cap space they will need for 2021. Alshon Jeffrey and Malik Jackson of the Eagles have already restructured their deals with Philadelphia, with perceived under the table agreements to be post June 1st designees in anticipation of this. This will allow them to start negotiating contracts as soon as the new NFL year starts instead of having to wait until June 1st. An interesting name to watch here is Trai Turner, a Guard for the Chargers. Cutting Turner will save the Chargers over 11 million dollars next year against the cap with zero dead money. He is at the top of PFF’s list for most likely to be cut in 2021. The Chargers are currently $22 million under the cap for 2021, so cutting Turner would allow them to make some other more needed moves. Staying with the IOL theme here, Gabe Jackson of the Raiders could be a cap casualty as well. Cutting him would save the Raiders almost $10 million against the cap with zero dead money. The Raiders are currently $17 million over the cap for 2021. At another position of need for the Jets, Kyle Fuller CB for the Bears, if designated as a post June 1st cut would save the Bears $14 million against the cap in 2021. The Bears are currently treading water at a hair over the cap (175K) and will be looking to shed salary with Fuller being their best option.

Here are some other possible cuts from teams that are in cap hell (more than 20 million over the cap):

Player Position Team Cap Situation Cap Savings – hit minus dead money

Kwon Alexander OLB Saints -99.8 million 13.4 million

Ryan Ramczyk RT Saints -99.8 million 11 million

Marshon Lattimore CB Saints -99.8 million 10.2 million

Janoris Jenkins CB Saints -99.8 million 10 million (post June 1st)

Derek Barnett DE Eagles -74 million 10 million

Brandon Graham DE Eagles -74 million 13 million (post June 1st)

Alshon Jeffrey WR Eagles -74 million 13 million (post June 1st)

Zach Ertz TE Eagles -74 million 8.2 million (post June 1st)

Brandon Brooks G Eagles -74 million 10.5 million (post June 1st)

Grady Jarrett DT Falcons -32.3 million 9 million (post June 1st)

Jake Matthews LT Falcons -32.3 million 13 million (post June 1st)

Dante Fowler DE Falcons -32.3 million 8 million (post June 1st)

Zadarius Smith OLB Packers -24.4 million 16.5 million (post June 1st)

Preston Smith OLB Packers -24.4 million 12 million (post June 1st)

Joe Haden CB Steelers -21.9 million 12.675 million

Stephon Tuitt DE Steelers -21.9 million 9 million (post June 1st)

Cam Heyward DT Steelers -21.9 million 10.5 million (post June 1st)

David DeCastro G Steelers -21.9 million 8.75 million

Michael Brockers DE Rams -21.3 million 7 million (post June 1st)

Andrew Whitworth LT Rams -21.3 million 7 million (post June 1st)

Rob Havenstein RT Rams -21.3 million 6.75 million (post June 1st)

Brandin Cooks WR Texans -20.3 million 12 million

David Johnson RB Texans -20.3 million 6.9 million

Duke Johnson RB Texans -20.3 million 5.15 million

Bernardrick McKinney ILB Texans -20.3 million 7 million

Nick Martin C Texans -20.3 million 7.5 million (post June 1st)



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