Right now there are a ton of rumors out there about the 2019 NFL Draft. Many of them are false, but sometimes we can learn things by piecing together separate reports.
On Schefter’s podcast this morning, Redskins were not mentioned in the running for Josh Rosen. He said Giants, Dolphins and Chargers as front runners.— JP Finlay (@JPFinlayNBCS) April 22, 2019
The #Jets are fielding phone calls for the No. 3 pick, obviously. They've made this abundantly clear & is normal this close to the draft.— Connor Hughes (@Connor_J_Hughes) April 23, 2019
Keep an eye on the #Redskins, I'm told. There have been some early talks.
The Jets have made it clear they would be interested in moving back. Washington needs a quarterback, which makes that team a trade up candidate.
This is worth watching.
A lot of the background work on trades is done before the Draft. Teams reach out across the league to make it clear they are either interested in trading up or trading down. They can work out some broad parameters.
This doesn’t mean a deal gets done. Take this case. When the Jets get on the clock, the quarterback Washington wants might be gone. A player the Jets didn’t expect to fall might be there for them (Nick Bosa?). These things might make one side lose interest in a trade.
But it’s really difficult to wing a trade once a team is on the clock. The two sides have ten minutes to finalize a trade. So it makes sense to get a lot of the groundwork done beforehand.
What could the Jets expect in exchange for the third pick? Washington owns the 15th overall selection.
Using the Pro Football Reference Trade Finder, I identified three instances since 2000 where a team with a top three pick traded out of the top ten.
2000 San Francisco trades with Washington
Washington got: 3rd overall pick
San Francisco got: 12th overall pick; 24th overall pick; Fourth Round Pick (119); Fifth Round Pick (154)
2013 Oakland trades with Miami
Miami got: 3rd overall pick
Oakland got: 12th overall pick; Second Round Pick (42)
2016 Tennessee trades with Los Angeles Rams
Los Angeles got: 1st overall pick; Fourth Round Pick (113); Sixth Round Pick (177)
Tennessee got: 15th overall pick; Future First Round Pick; Two Second Round Picks (43 and 45); Third Round Pick (76); Future Third Round Pick
So there’s a wide variety based on this deal. The boom scenario would be the bounty of picks like the Titans got. Worst case scenario would be simply adding a second round pick.
The middle ground would be adding an additional first rounder for the price of moving down. So with my back of the envelope math, I’ll say the Jets getting proper value would be contingent on acquiring Washington’s 2020 first round pick. Anything more would be excellent negotiating. Getting less would be an underwhelming haul.