Something to Keep in Mind as Free Agency Progresses

Ben Allbright, an NFL Insider, for those unaware or not on Twitter, just made a really good point about NFL Free Agency that made me pause and re-shaped my view on a lot of what's been going on.

He Said:
"'Player X is getting waaaaay overpaid'... By year three the guys who were getting overpaid are cut, and the guys that weren't are on a bargain deal."

Yes, that's a bit of painting with a broad brushstroke, but it rings true for probably about 90% of the deals we've seen the 24 hours. The NFL is growing at such a high rate and it's consistently raising it's salary cap, within 3 years the average salaries at most positions are rising at an even faster rate. A player that signs for $15M per year today will still be making that salary in 3 years, when an equal caliber player hitting free agency then will be making $20M per year, making the $15M look like a bargain.

For example, when I woke up to the Mosely signing this morning at 5Y/$85M, I was a little taken back and nervous about how much I felt they overpaid him. $17M per year is a ton of money for an inside linebacker, even one as young and talented as him. But when you look at through the lens Allbright provides, it becomes less scary. In 2022, the top LB (whoever that may be) will be in a market where the salary cap is likely over $215M (up from $188M in 2019, $177M in 2018). That LB will likely fetch a a contract averaging $20M per year.

At that point, Mosely is still a highly paid player of course, but instead of the highest paid, he may be down to top 5. Additionally If Mosely hasnt lived up to his contract, the team will likely have an out after 3 years, which has become basically the standard these days since NFL contracts aren't fully guaranteed. Even Trumaine John's nightmare contract from last year wasn't awful, The Jets can get out next year and make it essentially a 2 year deal.

So before you jump all over a deal for being too much money, think down the road. Think about the salary cap rising, how the team can exit deals gone bad, and how nothing in the NFL is permanent.

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