It occurs to me there's more to today's trade than what it seems on the surface - our fifth for the Raiders' sixth plus an affordable Pro Bowl guard under two years of team control (one guaranteed). On the surface this seems like we completely fleeced Oakland. Could no other team have made a better offer?
I am suggesting this was a sweetheart deal, groundwork for the suddenly-friendly Jets and Raiders to swap first round picks if Kyler Murray is on the board at #3 - which he will be.
The Raiders sit at #4. Despite the fact everyone and their cousin has mocked Kyler Murray to Arizona at #1, it's hardly guaranteed, especially with Nick Bosa as one helluva 'Plan B'. The Cardinals taking Bosa would be GREAT for both the Jets and the Cards:
- Arizona wouldn't have to sell Rosen for less than fair market value (he's a top 10-drafted QB with NFL and team experience, on a rookie deal. He's worth way more than the third rounder some have speculated)
- AZ adds Bosa and now has both a talented young QB and a bad-ass pass rush
- The 49ers at #2 will never take a QB - nor will the Jets at #3. So if Murray didn't go #1, interested teams (correctly) know the first threat is THE RAIDERS AT #4
- Everyone knows the Niners and Jets will trade back for more top 50 draft capital
- WHY would a team that wants Murray spend extra capital getting to #2 when they could spend less, get to #3 and win the same prize?
- If you're the Jets, you don't want to trade back so far as to lose out on a player you deem elite. And most would agree there is a sizable drop-off after Josh Allen and Quinnen Williams, one of whom is still on the board at this point, assuming SF took the other..
Mayock and Gruden own that #4 pick plus #24, #27 and #35 for a potential swap. They did the Jets a solid at left guard today and know Macc can easily be trusted not to entertain outside offers. To Macc, getting the #4 pick means Josh Allen or Q-Will, plus (keeping things sane and modest) a top-35 toy for Gase on offense. Gase wins, Gregg Williams wins, the Raiders win (they're getting Murray, they've moved Osemele who maybe they see as too much of a road grader for a shotgun offense, and still keep two of their three remaining top 35 picks. Oh yeah, they added AB yesterday too and can trade Derek Carr..
Who thinks I'm onto something?