2019 Jets Free Agency Profile: Tevin Coleman

Welcome to the 2019 Jets Free Agency Profile series! Up until the start of the 2019 free agency period in March, I’ll be running through a bunch of names the Jets could potentially bring in with their hoard of cap space. Let’s get into it!

Name: Tevin Coleman

Birthday/Age: April 16th, 1993 (age 26 on September 1st)

Height/Weight: 6’1, 210

FA type: Unrestricted

College: Indiana (drafted 73rd overall by the Falcons in the third round of the 2015 draft)

Team(s): Falcons (2015-18)

Position/usage: Running back. One of the league’s most featured pass catchers at the position, frequently split out wide

2018 stats: 16 games, 167 rushes, 800 yards (4.8 per attempt, 50.0 per game), 4 touchdowns. 32 catches, 42 targets, 276 yards (8.6 per reception, 17.3 per game), 5 touchdowns

Previous salary: 2015 third round, 73rd overall rookie contract. $1.0M cap hit in 2018

Spotrac Market Value: $5.0M/year (would currently be 14th highest at running back)

Jets connections: Falcons teammate of Andre Roberts

Measurables (via mockdraftable.com):

Pros:

• Will only be 26 at the start of 2019
• 33 of 34 games played over last two seasons
• Likely a sizable discount compared to Le’Veon Bell
• Very good receiving back. Since 2016, among running backs he ranks 2nd in receiving touchdowns (11) and 16th in receiving yards (996). His 11.1 yards per reception average ranks 2nd among the 68 running backs with at least 50 targets over that span, and his 8.1 yards per target average ranks 3rd
• Generated a 126.7 passer rating when targeted in 2018, best among the 32 running backs with at least 40 targets. Ranked 6th in 2017 (108.8) and 1st in 2016 (143.4)
• Tremendous big play threat in ground game. Has 38 career carries for 15+ yards, which is 10th most in the league over that span despite ranking 24th in total carries. 7.2% of career carries for 15+ yards, smashing league average of 5.0%. His 9.0% rate of 15+ carries in 2018 ranked fourth in the league
• From our friends at The Falcoholic: “He has terrific hands and is savvy as a route runner for a running back, and his speed makes him incredibly dangerous.”

Here Coleman shows you some of the versatility he offers as he lines up out wide, and runs a sharp drag route while taking advantage of a cleverly designed route combination that frees him up a world of open grass. He makes the most of the opportunity after the catch.

More out wide from Coleman, as he lines up slot left and takes the quick screen 39 yards to the house. This is one of two 30+ yard receiving touchdowns that Coleman owns in his career. A Jets running back hasn’t scored a 30+ yard receiving touchdown since Adrian Murrell in 1995.

Cons:

• His ability as a rusher has been questioned. The Falcoholic told me: “While he is fairly physical and a fine blocker, Coleman does have a nasty habit of falling off balance and loses out on opportunities for big gains as a result. He can be your lead back, but you will need someone else for situations where a bruising back who will fall forward and can work effectively with limited blocking is necessary.”
• There are quite a few numbers that back these claims. Coleman has rated poorly in Football Outsiders’ Success Rate, which measures the frequency at which a back produces a positive result based on down and distance. Coleman ranked 37th of 47 in 2018, 39th of 47 in 2017, and 25th of 42 in 2016
• Stuffed frequently. 47.3% of career carries have resulted in two yards or less and no first down, versus the league average of 43.3%
• Not reliable or efficient in power situations. Has converted only 13 of 22 (59.1%) career 3rd/4th & 1 situations, well below the league average of 71.5%. 0 for 3 on 3rd/4th & 2 and 0 for 1 on 3rd/4th & 3
• Good health over the past two seasons and fairly limited career mileage, but has an injury history in the past. Between college and the NFL, has four times had a stint of multiple missed games

I like Coleman a lot as a fallback option if the Jets are not able to acquire Le’Veon Bell. The Falcoholic told me that they do expect him to move elsewhere this offseason, so it seems Coleman will be at the forefront of the running back market right behind the melodramatic former Steeler.

Coleman should come at an affordable cost, and would bring proven big play propensity and elite receiving ability to the table. He would probably need a runningmate with a downhill running style, which the Jets don’t really have on their roster. I could see them looking to the draft to find a fit for that spot. Regardless, Coleman has some exciting traits that some offense out there will be happy to throw into the mix.