Today, we’ll dig a little deeper. In yesterday’s look, I valued each and every draft pick the same, simply comparing the Jets’ rate of picking each position to the NFL average, with a 7th rounder counting the same as a 1st rounder in the study. We all know that all selections are not created equal, and a 1st round investment does not carry the same weight as a 7th round investment.
So, digging back into the numbers today, I revised my approach to give a more accurate look at where the Jets have invested the most and least heavily on draft weekend. I calculated the total amount of draft capital the Jets have invested through weighting each selection by round; scoring a 1st round pick a 7, a 2nd round pick a 6, a 3rd round pick a 5, and so on. Though not as exact as a draft points chart, for example, this method still can give a better gauge on the true valuation the Jets have placed on every position compared to the rest of the NFL.
Through this formula, the Jets’ “draft investment capital” over the past decade is a score of 264, through nine 7th round picks, thirteen 6th round picks, nine 5th round picks, nine 4th round picks, eight 3rd round picks, seven 2nd round picks, and thirteen 1st round picks. To get the Jets’ valuation of each position, we’ll compare the total weight the Jets have allocated to each position to their total investment of 264. Then, we’ll put that rate against the league average rate.
Jets valuation rate: 11.0% (1 R7, 1 R6, 1 R5, 1 R4, 2 R2, 1 R1)
NFL valuation rate: 5.0% (NYJ: +6.0%)
By far the Jets’ most valued position. The Jets’ average round of selection at QB is equal to league average (3.9; the highest average round of any position), but they have stockpiled passers like no other team, taking a percentage more than double league average (using 10.3% of picks on QBs compared to the league average of 4.6%).
Jets valuation rate: 8.0% (1 R7, 2 R6, 1 R5, 2 R4, 1 R3)
NFL valuation rate: 8.6% (NYJ: -0.6%)
The Jets haven’t placed a premium on running backs. They have not picked one in the first two rounds and their average round of selection is decently lower than the NFL average (5.0 compared to 4.5), but their healthy late-round rate keeps them close to the mean.
Jets valuation rate: 14.8% (3 R7, 2 R6, 1 R5, 3 R4, 1 R3, 2 R2)
NFL valuation rate: 12.8% (NYJ: +2.0%)
Like the RB position, the Jets have made up for a lack of premium investment with volume. Though the Jets have not taken any of the 36 wide receivers drafted in the first round, their high volume in the later rounds keeps them above league average in overall valuation. As yesterday’s chart showed, the Jets still pick receivers 5.0% more than the average team in spite of avoiding them in round one.
Jets valuation rate: 6.1% (1 R5, 1 R2, 1 R3)
NFL valuation rate: 5.5% (NYJ: +0.6%)
As my previous chart showed, the Jets have selected tight ends less than average, but their choosing of 2 of the mere 27 total tight ends to go in the top two rounds (Dustin Keller and Jace Amaro) shoots them up in valuation.
Jets valuation rate: 11.7% (1 R7, 3 R6, 3 R5, 1 R4, 1 R3, 1 R2)
NFL valuation rate: 16.6% (NYJ: -4.9%)
On my previous chart, I was a bit surprised to see the Jets’ selected more offensive linemen relative to league average than linebackers or defensive linemen, since we all know how heavily they’ve ignored this position in the draft. Here is where that shows up. With only 1 of the 108 offensive linemen drafted in the top two rounds going to the Jets, the offensive line stands out as the franchise’s most ignored position over the past decade.
Jets valuation rate: 9.9% (1 R7, 1 R5, 3 R3, 1 R1)
NFL valuation rate: 12.7% (NYJ: -2.8%)
The Jets’ average round of selection at the linebacker position is higher than the league average (3.7 compared to 4.2), but their sheer lack of volume keeps them significantly below average in valuation.
Jets valuation rate: 17.4% (1 R7, 1 R6, 1 R5, 1 R3, 5 R1)
NFL valuation rate: 18.4% (NYJ: -1.0%)
The D-Line tying for the Jets’ least selected position relative to average was a surprise, but in this measure the team’s five first round picks bring them close to the mean. Their mere 4 picks past the first round still keeps them below the average.
Jets valuation rate: 21.2% (1 R7, 4 R6, 2 R4, 1 R3, 1 R2, 4 R1)
NFL valuation rate: 20.4% (NYJ: +0.8%)
Like the defensive line, the DBs checked out as a position the Jets have selected less than average, but they are propped up here due to heavy favoring at the top of the draft.
What’s your reaction to this data?
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This is some awesome research