What does Pro Football Reference think?
Pro Football Reference has a formula to determine a team’s odds of victory at any point within game. Which single play swung the odds most in New England’s favor on Sunday according to the formula?
There couldn’t be many wild swings in the percentages because the Patriots never had lower than an 86.4% chance of winning the game. The play that resulted in the biggest change was Chandler Catanzaro’s missed 40 yard field goal attempt early in the second quarter with New England leading 7-3. That missed kick improved the Pats’ chances 4% from 89.3% to 93.3%.
What do I think?
It is difficult to single out one play in such a thorough domination. If pressed, I would probably go with the 5 yard scoring play from Tom Brady to Brandin Cooks to put the Pats up 14-3 in the second quarter. New England was leaving a lot of plays on the field and keeping the Jets in the game. That score put the Pats in the driver’s seat. The Jets couldn’t afford to fall behind by two scores, and that play did it.
What do you think?