What was the most important play of the Jets’ win Sunday against the Miami Dolphins?
What does Pro Football Reference Think?
Pro Football Reference has a formula to estimate each team’s odds of winning a game at any given point. Which play swung the odds the most?
They say Josh McCown’s 69 yard touchdown pass to Robby Anderson late in the first half. This one play improved the Jets’ odds of winning by a full 20.5%. The Jets had a 52.7% chance of winning before the play and a 73.2% chance after the play. By this formula, this one play took the Jets essentially from a coin flip to a three in four chance of winning.
What do I think?
I also have to go with the Anderson touchdown. I had an uneasy feeling about the way the game was going up to that point. The Jets were dominating the game. The Dolphins were doing nothing offensively, and the Jets were moving the ball. Drives kept stalling, though, and New York’s lead was only 3-0. There are a lot of games where a team carries the play early but squanders opportunities to jump out to a big lead. Sometimes in these situations one play in the other direction completely and permanently changes momentum. This touchdown broke the ice for the offense and put the Jets in complete control right before halftime.
What do you think?