ESPN’s Football Power Index formula produced odds of the Jets landing the top overall pick in next year’s NFL Draft. They currently have a better chance than any other NFL team, but it is only a 40% chance.
I think more than anything this shows the tightrope the Jets are walking. Over the last few weeks, it has dawned on me how much the Jets seem to be staking on getting the top overall pick and taking Sam Darnold. Yet (according to this projection at least) it is more likely the Jets do not get the top overall pick than they do. And that doesn’t even incorporate scenarios where Darnold returns to school, slumps near the end of the year, or gets injured.
It isn’t clear what the Plan B is. Maybe another quarterback emerges along the way, but it sure feels to me like the Jets have put their eggs in one basket.
It’s a great plan...if it works.