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Jets vs. Bills: What Was the Most Important Play of the Game?

NFL: New York Jets at Buffalo Bills Rich Barnes-USA TODAY Sports

What was the most important play of the game in the Jets’ loss to the Bills on Sunday?

What does Pro Football Reference’s Win Probability Think?

Pro Football Reference has a complex formula to tell you what a team’s odds of winning are at any point in the game.

The play that swung the odds most in this game was the 47 yard catch and run by Jordan Matthews in the middle of the third quarter of Sunday’s game. Buster Skrine missed a tackle, and Matthews was on his way to a big gain. The play set up a 1 yard touchdown pass from Tyrod Taylor to Andre Holmes to give Buffalo a 14-6 lead.

The Bills never had odds lower than 50% to win the game, but the Matthews catch and run took those odds from 70.5% to 83.4%, a jump of 12.9%.

What do I think?

I have to go to a later point in the game. The Jets battled back and scored a touchdown following that drive to stay in the game. This was a 14-12 game heading into the fourth quarter. Mike Tolbert’s 1 yard touchdown run with 12:47 put Buffalo up 21-12. From that point, the Jets were chasing the game so I’d go with that touchdown.

What do you think?