NFL writer Mike Clay has made statistical projections for the league. Let’s take a look at what he has for the Jets.
2017 New York Jets game-by-game predictions, player projections and unit grades: pic.twitter.com/eq8yD05vHn— Mike Clay (@MikeClayNFL) May 30, 2017
What seems promising?
The thing that jumps off the page for me is the projection for ArDarius Stewart. Clay has him chipping in 39 catches for 488 yards emerging as the third receiver behind Eric Decker and Quincy Enunwa. He still would be a top five target in the passing game when factoring in Bilal Powell and Matt Forte. These numbers aren’t eye-popping, but I would sign up for them for a third round receiver.
The projections also seem generous for Josh McCown, perhaps too generous. These numbers would put him much closer to the bottom of the league than the top, but he completes over 60% of his passes, has more touchdown than interceptions, and keeps his interception rate around 2.6%. It feels like the very high water mark for McCown.
What doesn’t seem promising?
Almost everything else. We must keep in mind basic statistics don’t tell the story at many places outside the skill positions. Darron Lee could have a good season or a bad season with that stat line. There are other indicators to watch. In the secondary, the statistics shown tell us little of a player’s quality.
All of the projections here are ugly, though. The interior defensive line is the only place where the Jets have an above average group according to these ratings. There isn’t a single game where the Jets are rated with a better than 50% chance to win. The final record is around 4-12 and the top pick in the Draft.
The worst part is that it’s tough to argue much of this is unfair.