What does Pro Football Reference think?
Pro Football Reference has a formula to determine a team’s odds of winning at any point within a game. Which single play swung the odds the most?
They have the fumble by Jordan Matthews after a catch near the end of the first half. Matthews was tackled by Juston Burris, but Burris did not appear to have stripped the ball. It seemed like Matthews stripped himself. The Bills were driving at that point trailing 10-7 and were in position to at least kick a tying field goal before the half.
The Jets’ had a 47.4% chance of victory before the play, which moved to 60% after, a swing of 12.6%.
What do I think?
This is tricky because the game was a pretty thorough domination by the Jets. There wasn’t one play that totally swung the momentum.
Since I have to choose one, I will go with Matt Forte’s 10 yard touchdown run to give the Jets a 24-7 lead in the third quarter. The way the Jets defense was playing coupled with Buffalo’s lack of offensive firepower made a three score comeback in 20 minutes of game time a virtual impossibility.
What do you think?