What was the most important play of Sunday’s loss to the Panthers?
What does Pro Football Reference think?
Pro Football Reference has a formula to determine a team’s odds of winning at any point within a game. Which one play swung the percentages the most?
They go with Josh McCown’s fumble in the fourth quarter. With the Jets leading 20-18 early in the fourth, McCown was strip sacked by Wes Horton. Luke Kuechly returned the fumble 34 yards for a touchdown, and Carolina took the lead. The Panthers would never relinquish it.
Carolina’s odds of winning went from 36.7% to 79.9%, a change of 43.2%. The play essentially took the Jets from having a two in three shot of winning to a four in five shot of losing.
What do I think?
There are weeks I struggle picking out one play. This isn’t one of those weeks. The fumble is the clear winner. Any play where you lose a fourth quarter lead for good without your defense on the field is probably going to be the most significant of the game.
On Monday we broke down the breakdowns on that play in case you are interested in diving deeper.
What do you think?