What was the most important play for the Jets in yesterday’s win over the Cleveland Browns?
What does Pro Football Reference Think?
Pro Football Reference has a formula to calculate a team’s chances of winning at any given point in the game. Which one play caused the greatest shift in the odds?
They say it was Morris Claiborne’s interception of Kevin Hogan in the third quarter. With the Browns leading 7-3 in the third quarter, Claiborne picked off an errant pass from Hogan and returned it to the Cleveland 13. Two plays later, the Jets scored the go-ahead touchdown and led the rest of the way.
The formula gave the Jets a 33.7% chance of winning before the play and 56.2% after the play, a swing of 22.5%.
What do I think?
I would go with the touchdown pass from Josh McCown to Austin Seferian-Jenkins that actually gave the Jets the lead. The interception was big, but as the Jets offense took the field I felt like scoring a touchdown was critical. If the Browns held the Jets to a field goal, it would be a big win for Cleveland. The Browns would still have the lead, and it would feel like they dodged a bullet.
The Jets scoring the touchdown and forcing the Browns to play catch up was important.
What do you think?