What was the most important play in yesterday’s loss to Miami?
What does Pro Football Reference think?
Pro Football Reference has a formula to determine a team’s chances of winning at any point within a game. Which single play most swung the odds in Miami’s favor?
They say Josh McCown’s interception in the final minute of the game. It was responsible for an incredible 34.1% change. Miami had a 48.9% chance of winning before the play and an 83% chance of winning.
By the formula, that one play took the Dolphins from having less than a coin flip’s chance of being victorious to better than a four in five chance.
What do I think?
This one wasn’t easy. There were a number of key plays in this game. Ultimately, though, I have to come to the same conclusion as Pro Football Reference. The Jets shouldn’t have been in a tie game in the final minute. Plenty went wrong to get them to that point. That interception essentially sealed the game, though. The Jets were in a spot where at worst they should have been in overtime. That play ultimately lost the game.
What do you think?