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Jets vs. Jaguars: What Was the Most Important Play of the Game?

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NFL: Jacksonville Jaguars at New York Jets Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports

What was the most important play of the Jets’ win on Sunday over the Jacksonville Jaguars?

What does Pro Football Reference think?

Pro Football Reference has a formula that calculates a team’s odds of victory at any point within a game. Which single play increased the Jets’ odds of victory the most yesterday?

Believe it or not, it was actually the field goal the Jaguars kicked in the final minute of regulation to tie the game at 20 and force overtime. The Jets chances of victory went from 13.7% to 52.6%. It was an increase of 38.9%.

Why would a game-tying score for the other team help the Jets? Probably, it was because the Jaguars were 4 yards away from a go-ahead touchdown in the last minute of the fourth quarter. The field goal sent the game to overtime, but it took a game-winning touchdown off the table.

What do I think?

I think Lachlan Edwards’ 70 yard punt in overtime was the play that made the biggest difference. It flipped field position and set off the chain of events that led to the Jets winning the game. Jacksonville was pinned deep. The Jets got a stop. Jacksonville punted and picked up a penalty that put the Jets into field goal range.

It started with the punt.

What do you think?