What was the most important play of yesterday's game?
What does Pro Football Reference's win probability think?
Pro Football Reference has a win probability formula that estimates a team's chances of winning based on factors like score, time, and down. Which play swung the game the most in the Jets' favor yesterday by that formula?
Unsurprisingly, most of the plays that swung the odds in a big way came from the Bills. Buffalo scored two long touchdowns on passes and another on a fumble return. The play that swung things the most for the Jets was the onside kick recovery by Brandon Marshall in the final 2:00 of the fourth quarter. That took the Jets from 81.7% odds of winning all the way to 99.9%.
What do I think?
It is tough to find one play that really stands out above all others. It was a fairly methodical effort for the Jets. If I had to pick one, how about the fourth down stuff of LeSean McCoy by Sheldon Richardson and Darron Lee on the Jets' 45 up by 6 with under 8:00 to go? That was a really big play. If the Bills pick that up, their drive has a pretty good chance of at least getting some points and making things really interesting down the stretch. With the stop, the Jets set their offense up with great field position and a chance to get a score to put the game away, which they got.