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Will the Jets Get Any Compensatory Picks in 2017?

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Brian Spurlock-USA TODAY Sports

Over the Cap is out with early projections for compensatory Draft picks in 2017 based on what teams gained and lost in free agency over the last few months. They have bad news for Jets fans. The team is not currently slated to gain an extra pick.

They’re stuck on a net value 7th that’s below the 32-pick limit.  The Jets signed Jarvis Jenkins to play behind a deep position with Sheldon Richardson, Leonard Williams, and potentially Muhammad Wilkerson.  Cutting Jenkins would incur $2.25 million of dead money against the 2016 cap, but it would also put the Jets in line to pick up a 4th for Damon Harrison.

To put this in plain English, the projection indicates the signing of Jarvis Jenkins cost the Jets a fourth round pick. Their projections have the three qualifying free agents the team signed (Steve McLendon, Matt Forte, and Jenkins) cancelling out the three the team lost (Damon Harrison, Chris Ivory, and Demario Davis). Had the Jets not signed Jenkins, Forte and McLendon would have cancelled out losing Ivory and Davis, leaving the Jets a fourth round pick for losing Harrison.

Did Mike Maccagnan essentially trade a fourth round pick for a depth lineman? Should we be out with torches and pitchforks? This is not necessarily the case. It is too early to say that.  The current projections are based primarily on salary, but there are other factors that will go into it, such as playing time. As such, the final outcome cannot be known until the season is over.

Mike Maccagnan said during one of his media sessions during the Draft that the team's current projection is that the Jets are indeed potentially on track to get a fourth round compensatory pick for Harrison.

Could Over the Cap's numbers be off? To get some context, I looked at their 2016 compensatory pick projections against the picks the league actually awarded. Over the Cap projected 32 compensatory picks, while the NFL awarded 33. Here is how they did.

Correct Team and Round 26 (79%)

Team Projected Rd. Team Actual Rd.
DET 3 DET 3
NE 3 NE 3
SEA 3 SEA 3
DEN 3 DEN 3
GB 4 GB 4
SF 4 SF 4
BAL 4 BAL 4
BAL 4 BAL 4
DEN 4 DEN 4
DAL 4 DAL 4
GB 4 GB 4
CLE 4 CLE 4
ARI 5 ARI 5
CLE 5 CLE 5
SEA 5 SEA 5
CLE 5 CLE 5
SF 5 SF 5
SD 5 SD 5
SF 6 SF 6
DAL 6 DAL 6
SF 6 SF 6
NE 6 NE 6
SEA 6 SEA 6
DAL 6 DAL 6
DAL 6 DAL 6
DEN 6 DEN 6

Correct Team; Incorrect Round 5 (15%)

Team Projected Rd. Team Actual Rd.
NE 5 NE 6
DET 5 DET 6
BAL 5 BAL 6
NE 7 NE 6
PIT 7 PIT 6

Total Miss 2 (6%)

Team Projected Rd. Team Actual Rd.
N/A N/A BUF 4
SD 6 BUF 6

This leaves me with two conclusions.

1. Considering their resources and the complexity of the compensatory pick system, the people at Over the Cap did a first rate job. To approach 80% is superb.

2. There is some degree of variation between the projections and the actual results. Even though most of their projections were correct, there were some misses.

At this point, I would probably lean on the side of the Jets' projections. The teams in the league have the most information on the process. Partially I want the Jets to be right. Given how little wiggle room the team had to be active in free agency, not adding an extra pick this year would be a missed opportunity.