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Jets Cannot Base Quarterback Draft Strategy on Future Years

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Jim O'Connor-USA TODAY Sports

Around this time of year, it is common to hear people bringing the next year's Draft class into the discussion, particularly at the quarterback position. You will either hear somebody say, "The Jets should take a quarterback this year because next year's class stinks," or, "The Jets shouldn't take a quarterback. Look how good next year's class looks."

Of course, there are holes in this reasoning. We have no idea where the Jets will be drafting next year. Who is to say they will even be in a position to take one of those quarterbacks the next year.

The bigger problem is we have no idea which quarterbacks will be in the first round. The value of college prospects can fluctuate wildly in a year. Some players will come out of nowhere, get a lot better, and shoot up the boards. Others will not develop as projected and fall.

If you do not believe me, take a look at some of the projections people were making around this time last year.

When Todd McShay looked at the 2016 quarterback class last year, he had some opinions that are wildly different from the ones he had today. His mock draft had Christian Hackenberg going number one overall. Connor Cook went number two overall. Cardale Jones was his third quarterback off the board. He did have Jared Goff as a first rounder, but Carson Wentz and Paxton Lynch were nowhere to be found.

Dane Brugler had those same four first round quarterbacks, and he threw Gunner Kiel into the mix.

Chris Burke didn't even have Goff in the first round. Hackenberg, Cook, and Jones were his guys.

Now you might say you aren't a fan of a given analyst or mock drafts in general. The point here is none of these guys are mocking the same quarterbacks in the first round now. The consensus has changed in the last year. A year of games, all-star games, the Combine, and workouts is still ahead. These things can alter the round a player goes in. This is impossible to project. A team cannot base a strategy for now around circumstances that will probably change in the span of a year.