There has been a lot of buzz around Memphis quarterback Paxton Lynch. Should the Jets take the signal caller in the 2016 NFL Draft? Let's take a look at the prospect.
Arm Length: 34 1/4"
Hand Size: 10 1/4"
Completion Percentage: 62.9%
Yards Per Attempt: 7.2
Touchdown Rate: 4.9%
Interception Rate: 1.9%
40 Time: 4.86 seconds
Vertical Jump: 36.0 inches
Broad Jump: 118.0 inches
3 Cone Drill: 7.14 seconds
Bill Parcells Quarterback Rules (2/4)
Was he a senior? No
Was he a three year starter? Yes
Did he graduate? Yes
Did he win at least 23 games as a starting quarterback? No
26-27-60 Rule (2/2 Known)
Did he score at least 26 on the Wonderlic? Unknown at this time
Did he start at least 27 games? Yes
Did he complete at least 60% of his passes? Yes
Football Outsiders' QBASE Formula
Mean Projection, Years 3-5: 104 DYAR
Bust (less than 500) 67.2%
Adequate Starter (500-1499) 21.3%
Upper Tier (1500-2500) 8.7%
Elite (>2500) 2.9%
At first blush, Lynch's 2015 numbers (66.8 percent completion rate, 8.5 YPA, 28 TDs, 4 INT) look promising. The bloom comes off the rose, however, when you correct for Lynch running up his numbers against the No. 86 slate of opposing defenses. While QBASE finds enough in the raw numbers for past prospects such as Ben Roethlisberger to produce a high projection despite weak competition, Lynch's stats do not quite rise to that bar.
Even with QBASE's pessimism about Lynch's outlook, the projection still gives him about a 33 percent chance of being at least an adequate starter. Quarterbacks with those odds of success have historically gone in the second round, so the projection would view it as a reach if, as some mock drafts suggest, the Broncos selected him with their first-round pick (No. 31 overall).
PFF Draft Guide Stats
Accuracy: 77.1% (5th of 22 QB prospects)
Accuracy Under Pressure: 70.3% (2nd of 22 QB prospects)
Deep Passing Accuracy: 51.8% (6th of 22 QB prospects)
What the Experts Say
Mike Mayock: "Paxton Lynch reminds me of Joe Flacco coming out of Delaware. Very tall and athletic, but needs to be brought along. You better do your homework on a Paxton Lynch. He's a great athlete for 6'7", but he's a year or two away from playing at level that you need to in this league. But if you think Paxton Lynch is a franchise QB, you better go get him because there aren't many of those guys out there."
Gil Brandt: "Lynch is the consensus third-best quarterback in the draft, but he's not in the same category as Wentz and Goff. He has good size, a strong arm and a lot of tools, but he's inconsistent, lacks experience and will need some time to adjust to the pro game. He could be around at the end of the first round for the Broncos, who could groom him behind whatever veteran they bring in to be their starter."
To the Film!
vs. Missouri State
vs. South Florida
vs. Bowling Green
vs. Ole Miss
vs. Temple Birmingham Bowl vs. Auburn