It's nearly January, which means the Jets season is coming to an end and it's almost time to turn our focus to the draft and free agency. Do you remember what it was like to be talking NFL play-offs in January? Personally I've almost forgotten, the Jets haven't made the play-offs since 2010, when a Rex Ryan led team fell agonizingly close to making it to the big dance, eventually being beaten in the AFC Championship game by the Steelers.
But...here we are. It's that time of the year where we hope we can uncover a few hidden gems and maybe, just maybe, we can find the answer to the unsolvable equation that is the QB position.
As things stand today, the Jets would select 6th overall in the 2017 NFL Draft. However there are a couple of teams with a similar record who could end up switching positions thanks to the outcomes of Sunday's games.
Chicago Bears 3-12
Jacksonville Jaguars 3-12
LA Rams 4-12
New York Jets 4-12
As things stand, the New York Jets have a 68% chance of remaining in the 6th spot. A 27% chance of moving up to pick number 5, a 5% chance of moving up to pick number 4, and less than a 1% chance of moving up all the way to pick number 3. I know, insert Jim Carrey’s "so you're telling me there is a chance" gif.
I've been asked a couple of times on Twitter to explain what happens if the records are tied at the end of the season. How does the NFL determine who should be given the higher pick in the draft?
First it all comes down to strength of schedule. The team that had the lower SOS will be given the higher pick in the draft. So lets just take a quick look at the current strength of schedule with one game to go:
Chicago Bears .502
Jacksonville Jaguars .514
LA Rams .488
New York Jets .507
So based on this, only the Jaguars would come ahead of the Jets in relation to strength of schedule. Now we need to look at the games this weekend for all four teams
Bills (7-8) @ Jets (4-11)
Bears (3-12) @ Vikings (7-8)
Jaguars (3-12) @ Colts (7-8)
Cardinals (6-8-1) @ Rams (4-11)
We can really forget about the Bears. Even if they win and we lose, the projected SOS for them would keep them ahead of us in the draft.
However if the Jets lose to finish 4-12 and both the Rams and Jaguars win, the Jets could end up with the 4th overall selection. The Rams would be ahead of us on record and the Jaguars would be ahead of us due to having faced a stronger SOS.