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NY Jets: This Looks Familiar

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Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports

The New York Jets are now three and a half games into the Bryce Petty era.  It's still  very early, but thus far the results are not promising.

Through three and a half games Bryce Petty has the following statistics:

Comp %

Yards/

Attempt

TD %

INT %

QB

Rating

Sack %

57.7

6.2

2.3

4.6

64.6

7.8


In those three and a half games the Jets have a 1-3 record and Petty has led one comeback victory.

In looking at those statistics I thought they looked eerily familiar.  I wondered where I had seen them before. And then it hit me.

Here are Geno Smith's statistics for his rookie year of 2013:


Comp %

Yards/

Attempt

TD %

INT %

QB

Rating

Sack %

55.7

6.9

2.7

4.7

66.5

8.8

In Geno Smith's first four games the Jets had a 2-2 record and Geno led one come from behind victory.

Statistically speaking Petty's first three and a half games are almost a carbon copy of Geno's first season. The two also came from somewhat similar backgrounds, running gimmicky passing pinball offenses in defense-free college football conferences and putting up gaudy numbers while getting little preparation for running a pro style offense. There are differences though. Geno Smith was nearly two years younger than Petty when Geno was starting his first four NFL games. Geno also had the benefit of just a single training camp, while Petty had two camps and one and a half NFL seasons before he was thrust into the fray.  Finally, Geno Smith's top four targets were Jeremy Kerley, David Nelson, Stephen Hill and a broken down Santonio Holmes.  Kerley would be a fourth wide receiver on the 2016 Jets, fifth if Eric Decker was healthy.  Hill never caught another NFL pass after 2013.  Nelson caught all of eight more passes in his career, as did Holmes. Compare that to the receivers Petty is throwing to: borderline Hall of Fame receiver Brandon Marshall, on the downside of his career but still better than any 2013 Jets receiver; emerging star Quincy Enunwa, outstanding rookie Robby Anderson and Charone Peake.  The first three are all superior to any receiver on the 2013 Jets.

What does it all mean?  Not much given the tiny sample we're talking about here.  Still, it is not a promising sign for Petty that statistically he looks almost exactly like Geno did in 2013, except Petty is two years older, with a year's more NFL experience and throwing to much better targets.  It's still early.  Perhaps Petty will make a quantum developmental leap with one more offseason of work.  But with results like these hope starts to be a little bit more difficult to sustain for Petty's prospects of developing into a worthy NFL starting quarterback.