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Jets vs. 49ers: What Was the Most Important Play in the Game?

What was the most important play of Sunday’s win over the 49ers?

What does Pro Football Reference's win probability think?

Pro Football Reference has a win probability formula that estimates a team's chances of winning based on factors like score, time, and down. Which play swung the game the most in the Jets' favor Sunday by that formula?

They have Nick Folk's 50 yard field goal in the final minute of regulation to send the game to overtime. It moved the Jets from 33.21% to 62.01%, a 28.8% swing.

What do I think?

I probably would also go with Folk's field goal. It was the first point all day where I legitimately felt like the Jets were going to win the game. It wasn't an easy kick. There wasn't one huge play on the drive to get the Jets into field goal range either. They gradually got into range for Folk to hit his big kick.

What do you think?