Jets vs. Seahawks: What Was the Most Important Play of the Game?

What was the most important play of yesterday's game?

What does Pro Football Reference's win probability think?

Pro Football Reference has a win probability formula that estimates a team's chances of winning based on factors like score, time, and down. Which play swung the game the most in the Seahawks' favor yesterday by that formula?

They say it was the 38 yard completion from Russell Wilson to Doug Baldwin early in the second quarter. Calvin Pryor took a personal foul penalty at the end of the play to tack on yardage. It moved the Seahawks from the Jets’ 48 down to the 5 yard line. Seattle scored a touchdown two plays later to take a 7-3 lead. It was the first time the Seahawks led the game, and they would never give the lead up.

What do I think?

I would go with Richard Sherman’s interception of Ryan Fitzpatrick early in the fourth quarter. It was very much a game at that point. Sherman made a great play as Fitzpatrick went to the well once too often. The interception set Seattle up with a short field already leading by 7. Given the way the Jets’ defense was struggling, that was enormous. Seattle cashed in the turnover for a touchdown, and the Jets were pretty much out of the game.

What do you think?