What was the most important play of Sunday’s win over the Ravens?
What does Pro Football Reference's win probability think?
Pro Football Reference has a win probability formula that estimates a team's chances of winning based on factors like score, time, and down. Which play swung the game the most in the Jets' favor Sunday by that formula?
They say Buster Skrine’s third quarter interception of Joe Flacco and return swung the game more than any other play. With the Jets trailing 16-14, this interception set the Jets up at the Baltimore 3 yard line. Although New York was not able to punch in the touchdown, the interception set up a go-ahead field goal, giving the Jets a lead they would never lose. The interception raised the Jets’ chances of winning by 33.3% from 41.3% to 74.6%.
What do I think?
I have to go with the wild play on the goal line following Marcus Gilchrist’s interception. Matt Forte fumbled inside the 5 yard line with the Jets looking for a touchdown to go up 8 points, but Brandon Marshall didn’t give up on the play. He stripped Timmy Jernigan and recovered it, giving the Jets a first down. It was a play reminiscent of one Marshall made in his first game as a Jet against Cleveland last year.
The Jets took advantage of their second chance by scoring a touchdown to go ahead 24-16.
I know the Jets already led the game when this happened, but Forte’s fumble could have had an outsized effect on the team. When nothing is going right, another failure to punch the ball in could allow a sense of, “Here we go again,” to sneak into the stadium. I think it was really important to get the ball back and score to take the lead from 1 to 8.
What do you think?