What was the most important play of Monday’s loss to the Cardinals?
What does Pro Football Reference's win probability think?
Pro Football Reference has a win probability formula that estimates a team's chances of winning based on factors like score, time, and down. Which play swung the game the most in the Cardinals' favor Monday by that formula?
They say it was David Johnson’s 58 yard touchdown. The Cardinals were almost always in control of the game so it did not swing things a whole lot, but it improved Arizona’s win probability from 73.7% to 83.2%. It was a 9.5% increase.
What do I think?
I would say it is tough to go wrong with the Johnson touchdown. It gave the Cardinals the lead for good.
I think it also set the tone for the game. When you are struggling like the Jets are, it can be important to get off to a good start. A breakdown like that so early to put you behind can create a sense of, “Here we go again,” particularly when defensive breakdowns to spot the opponent an early lead have been such a common theme of the season.
What do you think?