What does Pro Football Reference's win probability think?
Pro Football Reference has a win probability formula that estimates a team's chances of winning based on factors like score, time, and down. Which play swung the game the most in the Bills' favor yesterday by that formula?
It was the fourth quarter interception in the end zone by Ryan Fitzpatrick looking for Eric Decker. The Jets trailed 19-17 and had the ball on the Buffalo 14 yard line. At the very least they had the ball in position to attempt a go-ahead field goal with just over 10 minutes to play in the fourth quarter. They also had all of the momentum in the game. They had scored a touchdown on the previous series and forced a quick three and out when Buffalo had the ball.
The interception took Buffalo's winning odds from 32.9% to 61.9%.
What do I think?
This is tough because there were so many different plays that made a difference. I could go with one of the first half plays that staked the Bills to the lead. I could go with the ball Kenbrell Thompkins could not catch in the last minute. Even with everything that had happened, the game was right there to be won if Thompkins had made the play.
Ultimately, though, I am going to agree with the interception in the red zone. All the Jets needed to do was avoid a disastrous play, and in a worst case scenario, they would take the lead with a field goal. Yes, it was a windy day. Yes, Randy Bullock had missed a kick earlier. I'll take my chances.
It was the best chance the Jets had all day to go ahead, and they threw it away.